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Jewish World Review
Nov. 6, 2012/ 21 Mar-Cheshvan, 5773
Polls don't reflect Romney's momentum in Ohio
By
Byron York
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
"I think the intensity is on our side this year," said Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, perhaps the most effective campaigner for Mitt Romney, as he shook hands with volunteers and supporters in a suburban Cincinnati restaurant a few days before the election. "Theirs is not what it was in 2008."
Portman was visiting the Firehouse Grill to campaign not only for Romney but also for Brad Wenstrup, the local Republican favored to win a seat representing Ohio's 2nd District in Congress. After the event, Portman came over to a table where my laptop displayed the RealClearPolitics average of Ohio polls. Nine polls were on the screen. Eight, displayed in blue, showed Barack Obama ahead in Ohio by anywhere from one to five points. One, displayed in red, showed Romney ahead by two points.
Portman studied the screen. What about those? I asked. Romney's pollster, Neil Newhouse, has said the campaign's internal surveys show the race is essentially dead even in Ohio, a state where much of the campaign has been focused because it is so key to the outcome of the presidential race as a whole. But on the screen, poll after poll showed Obama ahead in Ohio, if only by a little.
"Most of them that are outside of one or two points either way oversampled Democrats compared to what we expect this year," Portman answered. "Some of them even oversampled as to what we had in 2008, which no one believes is accurate."
Beyond that, Portman said, the Romney campaign continues to lead among independent voters. (Those independents chose Portman by a landslide in his 2010 Senate run.) Put it all together, he explained, and those blue numbers on the RealClearPolitics screen just don't tell the story.
"I'm not saying that it isn't close," Portman said. "It is close. But we're not losing. I think it's tied. I do think we've got the momentum on our side."
In Ohio, on the eve of the election, there is a bitter fight going on over independent voters. The Romney camp maintains, correctly, that Romney is leading among independents in nearly all state polls. A recent Quinnipiac/New York Times survey, for example, which showed Obama leading overall by five points, also showed Romney winning independents by six.
Team Romney argued that something was wrong with the poll because with both parties about even, independents will decide the race. "Chances are if we win Ohio independents by six, we win the state," pollster Newhouse said in an email exchange. "Period."
The Obama campaign scoffs at such talk. On a conference call with reporters, top aide David Axelrod predicted the president will win independents in some swing states but said an Obama victory will not depend on it. "I think we'll be competitive with those voters," Axelrod said. "We may not win those voters, but we don't have to win those voters."
"We have the math, and they have the myth," Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said on the same call. "At this time next week, President Obama will have been re-elected for a second term, and we can all get some sleep."
That's a lot of confidence, and bravado, in such a close race. After all, even if all the public polls showing Obama ahead in Ohio are correct, they average out to a lead of less than three points. That's a toss-up by almost anyone's measure.
Precisely because the race has been so close, Ohio received the honor of nonstop campaigning in the days before the election. A blowout Romney rally in the Cincinnati suburbs Friday night. A noisy Obama gathering at the University of Cincinnati on Sunday night. Day-before visits by both candidates (and, in Obama's case, Bruce Springsteen and Jay-Z).
But the polls are still the focus of the race, and its constant backdrop. Yes, Republicans are acutely aware of what they say. But in the wave of enthusiasm that still exists after the presidential debates, Republicans are measuring the polls against what they see with their own eyes.
"I helped with the John McCain race four years ago," said Lee Czerwonka, vice mayor of suburban Blue Ash, Ohio, who came to see Portman and Wenstrup. "That one just never caught fire. There wasn't enough energy. This is night and day. I have volunteers coming from Tennessee, Texas and Kentucky. We've got a great base for poll workers, phones, door knocking. We've never seen anything like it."
at he doesn't care about the poor. But the fact is, if you listen to both Romney and Obama on the stump, you will hear concern about the nation's poor from one candidate and virtually nothing from the other.
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Previously:
10/30/12 Romney, not Obama, shows concern for nation's poor
10/23/12 Entering stretch, Obama campaign running on empty
10/16/12 Will Romney push Libya issue or opt for caution?
10/12/12Romney should expose irs as enforcer of ObamaCare
10/03/12 Obama's problems multiply as GOP frets over Romney
08/25/12 With everything at stake, where's Mitt?
08/21/12 Can Romney fight distractions and stay focused on jobs?
08/14/12 When 1,099 felons vote in a race won by 312 ballots
08/07/12 Heeding critics, Romney finally sharpens pitch for long run
07/31/12 Under second Obama term, a more dependent nation?
07/10/12 Should Rmney apologize for RomneyCare?
07/03/12 Roberts' dodge at heart of ObamaCare decision
06/26/12 For Obama, working for business was working for enemy
06/19/12 Obama suffers amnesia about first year as president
06/12/12 As Romney-Obama fight heats up, Bain will be back
06/05/12 Two books, two standards for Obama, Bush
05/30/12 Obama, Rubio birthers should read the law
05/22/12 Extend Obama's grace period just a wee bit longer?
05/15/12 In new biography, Obama asks: Am I an American?
05/08/12 With serious talks, Gingrich elevated GOP race
05/01/12 Romney braces for 'vast left-wing conspiracy'
04/24/12 Obama faces defeat on pipeline as Dems defect
04/17/12 Time for a cease-fire in phony 'war on women'?
04/10/12 To Obama, legal precedents are all about politics
04/03/12 All of the liberal panic unnecessary --- and all the conservative hope unfounded?
03/27/12 Obama headed for defeat in pipeline fight
03/20/12 Why do island territories play key role in GOP race?
03/14/12The real bias in 'Game Change'
03/06/12 In politics fight, Breitbart knew culture is key
02/27/12 Hollywood makes 'Game Change' into Sarah Palin story
02/22/12 Why did Santorum lose in 2006?
02/14/12 After wins, Santorum targets Romney's native state
02/07/12 Running as businessman may be Romney's curse
02/01/12 What REALLY happened to the Gingrich ethics case?
01/25/12 Romney's unsolvable Massachusetts problem
01/18/12 If Romney wins, count on Obama to dig into Bain
01/10/12 Is New Hampshire fit to pick a president?
01/04/12 How Romney began journey on abortion
12/28/11 Blame Florida for GOP's holiday craziness
12/20/11 Huckabee dismisses draft but remains a force in Iowa
12/13/11 Surging fast, Gingrich looks to take Iowa
12/06/11 Voters like Newt, but wait to see if he's real
11/29/11 Despite surge, peril for Gingrich all around
11/22/11 To bounce back, Perry must mix it up
11/15/11 Newt's wonkish, unconventional campaign
11/08/11 Tim Pawlenty, the man who coulda been a contender
11/07/11 Gingrich big winner at key Iowa event
10/31/11 Perry's right: Republicans drowning in debates
10/25/11 Romney health plan still faces challenge from GOP
10/18/11 Lesson of Perry's candidacy: Think before you run
10/06/11 In veepstakes, candidates deaf to Rubio ‘no’
10/04/11 Cain's 9-9-9 plan sounds good, but will it work?
09/27/11 Media bias 101
09/20/11 Obama plagued by Dems' ingratitude
09/13/11 Will immigration cripple Perry's bid?
09/06/11 Left paints the campaign as a religious war
08/30/11 Keep your health plan? Don't count on it
08/24/11 GOP operatives fear lasting Ron Paul problem
08/16/11 Michele Bachmann and the ‘submissive’ question
08/09/11 Obama partisans ignore facts when bashing Bush
08/02/11 When partisans fling charges of partisanship
07/26/11 Obama could be comeback kid if he heeds Clinton's lessons
07/19/11 Book casts doubt on Obama healthcare story
07/12/11 Controversial budget law begins to pay off
07/04/11 Anti-Mormon bias persists, notably among Dems
06/27/11 Huntsman tries McCain model, but he's no John McCain
06/06/11 Amid media circus, Palin lays out policy positions
05/30/11 GOP condemns Dems' ‘breathtaking’ refusal to produce budget
05/24/11 Eye-for-an-eye filibuster stops Democratic nominee
05/17/11 Amid RomneyCare fight, voters ask: Where's Mitt?
05/10/11 Bin Laden coup won't help Obama in budget fight
05/09/11 Inside the GOP debate: Pawlenty underwhelms, Cain struggles, Santorum scores
05/02/11 Huckabee decision will shape GOP presidential race
04/27/11 Get ready for game of chicken over debt ceiling
04/25/11 McCain: Libyan rebels seek U.S. recognition, might pay for war costs
04/18/11 Have the U.S. and NATO given up on Libya mess?
04/11/11 Reforming entitlements is key to a strong military
04/05/11 Jihadis Who Killed Americans Get U.S. Support in Libya
04/04/11 Unions deploy money and muscle in Battle of Wisconsin
03/30/11 Labor fight in Wisconsin is far from over
03/28/11 Obama fails to grasp the gravity of going to war
03/21/11 Union equates lavish benefits to black civil rights
03/15/11 GOP should heed lesson of 1991: No guts, no glory
03/14/11 GOP focuses on NPR's subsidies, not its politics
03/08/11 While Obama seeks new ideas, his bureaucrats stifle them
02/28/11 Why the GOP shouldn't fear a government shutdown
02/22/11 In Hawaii, a dispiriting glimpse of one-party rule
02/21/11 Obama team uses slippery words to tout budget
02/15/11 Myth and memory: The battle over Reagan's legacy
02/07/11 Invoking Reagan, Palin says ‘this is a time for choosing again’
01/31/11 With each passing year, Reagan grows larger in the American political imagination
01/24/11 House GOP begins long drive to dismantle Obamacare
01/17/11 GOP gears up again to strip NPR of federal funds
01/10/11 To House GOP, illegal immigration is a jobs issue
01/03/11 Obamacare mess is legacy of Dems' moment of power
12/27/10 Smiling Dems will soon cry ‘Washington is broken’
12/20/10 Dems are earmark junkies but GOP goes straight
12/13/10 Needed: A ‘more presidential’ Palin
12/06/10 With Dems in a funk, Obama charts a new course
11/29/10 Obama's poll numbers point to his defeat in 2012
11/22/10 Holder ignored risks of civilian terror trials
11/16/10 Dems love facts and science --- except when they don't
11/08/10 Obama, new GOP lawmakers are on collision course
11/01/10 New GOP star on track to defeat Dem legend Russ Feingold
10/26/10 If Dems lose, Obama will blame everyone but himself
10/19/10 Profligate Congress should read its own bills
10/13/10 Why Big Labor couldn't match Glenn Beck's rally
10/11/10 Trash-talking Democrat faces defeat in Florida
10/05/10 A GOP unknown in striking distance of Barney Frank
09/28/10 Administration inflates green-jobs numbers
09/20/10 In Delaware, GOP should target Dems, not O'Donnell
09/14/10 GOP Insiders Wary of Landslide Predictions
08/31/10 For Obamacare supporters, judgment day approaches
08/23/10 Obama has himself to blame for Muslim problem
08/17/10 Cut spending without cutting services? Start here
08/17/10 For Michelle Obama, extravagance dents popularity
08/09/10 Obama's zealous civil rights enforcer gets busy
08/02/10 A battle between Left and Right --- inside the GOP
07/26/10 GOP spoiling for fight over Berwick appointment
07/20/10 How long will the public tolerate Afghan war?
07/12/10 NASA's Muslim outreach: Al Jazeera told first
07/02/10 Legal complaint against Gore is detailed, credible
06/28/10 Obama and Dems heading for electoral disaster
06/21/10 Who told Obama drilling is ‘absolutely safe’?
06/14/10 Billions for ‘green jobs,’ whatever they are
06/07/10 Sestak a no-go for any job. So what was the deal?
05/31/10 As economic worries worsen, White House puts on the glitz
05/25/10 GOP dilemma: Fight Kagan, or go along?
05/11/10 Enforcing nation's immigration laws would be a bargain
05/03/10 How Obama could lose Arizona immigration battle
04/27/10 What's behind the anti-Tea Party hate narrative?
04/20/10 As government expands, beware the post-office example
04/19/10 Who wins in 2010? Good luck reading tea leaves
04/12/10 GOP Obamacare strategy: Try repeal, then cut
04/05/10 Obamacare was mainly aimed at redistributing wealth
03/30/10 Message to Dems: People still don't like Obamacare
03/23/10 The coming consequences of Obamacare
03/16/10 Marco Rubio and the Republicans who love him
03/15/10 GOP hopes town halls take health care off table
03/08/10 Dems turn risky health vote into manhood contest
03/01/10 Why Obama defies the public on health care
02/22/10 South Carolina mulls 2012: Romney? Palin? Huck?
02/16/10 GOP winning war over Miranda rights for terrorists
02/09/10 Who are the 300 terrorists held in U.S. prisons?
02/02/10 Is Obama dissatisfied with being president?
01/19/10 The Republican dilemma: Good Michael or Bad Michael?
01/12/10 Now the lawmakers are figuring out what they didn't know
01/05/10 GOP deserves blame for Democratic excesses
12/29/09 Dems' dreams of a blue West begin to turn red
12/22/09 Why Dems push health care, even if it kills them
11/30/09 Dems' kamikaze mission: Health care by New Year's
11/23/09 Why it's a mistake to bring Gitmo prisoners here
11/16/09 Dems' slick fix: $210 billion of fiscal restraint
11/10/09 Obama can't be community organizer for the world
11/02/09 At key moment, Obama leaves health post unfilled
10/26/09 ‘Fierce urgency' for jobs, not health care’
10/12/09 Facts hurt Jennings in youth sex controversy
10/05/09 Amid terror threat, Dems chip away at Patriot Act
09/27/09 In Afghanistan, let U.S. troops be warriors
09/21/09 Under fire, Democrats abandon ACORN in drove
09/14/09 Dems stifle Republican health care plans
09/08/09 For Dems, a serious Charlie Rangel problem
09/07/09 Obama's speech: Wrong setting for a sales job
09/01/09 What happened to the antiwar movement?
08/24/09 Why Dems may jam through health care plan
08/17/09 GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010
08/10/09 The empty words of a journalist turned flack
08/03/09 Probe finds new clues in AmeriCorps IG scandal
07/27/09 Obamacare haunted by unkept promises of stimulus
07/20/09 Why the GOP failed the Sotomayor test
07/13/09 What the GOPers will ask Sotomayor
06/29/09 Serious questions remain for Mark Sanford
06/22/09 How GOPers can crack the AmeriCorps scandal
06/16/09 Worried about Sotomayor? Consider Andre Davis
06/08/09 Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP?
06/01/09 When the Dems derailed a Latino nominee
05/26/09 Why the GOP will defeat Obama on healthcare
05/19/09 Rosy report can't hide stimulus problems
05/12/09 The Reagan legacy is the man himself
05/05/09 Sen. Specter, meet your new friends
04/27/09 Ted Olson: ‘Torture' probes will never end
04/20/09 Who's Laughing at the ‘Axis of Evil’ today?
04/14/09 Congress needs Google to track stimulus money
04/06/09 Beyond AIG: A bill to let Big Government set your salary
03/30/09 On Spending and the Deficit, McCain Was Right
03/24/09 It's Obama's crisis now
03/17/09: Geithner-Obama economics: A joke that's not funny
© 2009, NEA
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