The Romney revival

"Run, Mitt, run."

That was the chant as Mitt Romney appeared at a rally for Joni Ernst, the Republican Senate candidate in Iowa. The 2012 GOP standard-bearer hears those words a lot as he campaigns around the country this fall, and they trigger two questions.

Will be run? Can he win?

"I'm not running for office," Romney insisted in Iowa. And his wife, Ann, reiterated this week that the family was "done, done, done" with presidential politics.

And yet. Romney really believed that he would win two years ago, and there have to be long days -- and late nights -- when the dream comes creeping back and won't quite die. Remember the adage popularized by the late Mo Udall, a candidate for the Democratic nomination in 1976 against Jimmy Carter: "The only cure for presidentialitis is embalming fluid."

And Romney has gotten a lot of encouragement lately. In a Des Moines Register poll, he was the only Republican to lead Hillary Clinton in Iowa, a state Barack Obama won twice.

More seriously, a huge vacuum is starting to emerge in what might be called the PEC sector: the Pragmatic-Establishment-Centrist wing of the Republican Party. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey wants to run, but his brand has been blemished by the George Washington Bridge scandal. Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, seems gripped by a case of terminal indecision.

As a result, there's a growing alarm among PECs that the party nomination could go to a Ted Cruz or a Rand Paul -- candidates who inflame the conservative base, but who could lead the party to a devastating defeat and make Hillary Clinton president.

That's the fear that foments more talk about Romney. "It's the market pulling him," Kent Lucken, a close advisor, told The Washington Post. "People look at Hillary as the likely Democratic nominee, and the party needs a strong leader who can stand up to her and who's been through the process."

While Mitt denies any interest in running, reports the Post, he "has huddled with prominent donors and reconnected with supporters in key states in recent months." So he's keeping the door open, if only slightly.

And that raises the second question: Can he win?

His supporters certainly think so. After all, they say, more than 60 million Americans voted for him two years ago. Moreover, he's been proven right on a number of issues, especially the growing threat posed by Russia.

Josh Barro wrote recently in the New York Times that Romney's promise to be "the skilled manager who could identify problems, root out dysfunction and make anything work better," is more appealing than it was two years ago.

From the flaws in the Veterans Health Administration to the fears about Ebola, Barro writes, "there have been a lot of news stories that might lead voters to say, 'Gee, this looks like the sort of problem Mitt Romney might have handled better.'"

Finally, Mitt's minions argue that Hillary can be beaten, but only by a mainstream candidate. After all, she did lose to Barack Obama in 2008 and has yet to prove that she shares her husband's ability to connect with ordinary voters on an individual level.

The case for Romney has one huge hole, however: He suffers from the same impediment that plagues Hillary Clinton, only more so. The main issue with Romney is not his policies but his personality; it's not his competency, it's his compassion.

The exit polls from two years ago make this very clear. Asked the most important quality they want in a president, 1 out of 5 voters named "Cares about people." Among those voters, Obama led Romney 81 to 18. On the question about which candidate is "more in touch with people like you," Obama had a 10-point edge.

Other results reinforce Romney's challenge: Among voters under 30 he got 37 percent; women 44 percent; unmarried women 31 percent; Latinos 27 percent, blacks 6 percent. And the electorate's racial makeup is changing rapidly. It was 72 percent white in 2012, and should be under 70 percent by 2016.

There will be more chants of "Run, Mitt, run," in the months ahead, and Romney is pretty realistic about why. "The unavailable is always the most attractive, right?" he told the Associated Press.

If he does decide to run, all the strengths he showed in 2012 would make him a serious contender. But all the weaknesses that cost him that election are still there, as well.

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