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April 21, 2014

Andrew Silow-Carroll: Passoverkill? Suggestions to make next year's seders even more culturally sensitive

Sara Israelsen Hartley: Seeking the Divine: An ancient connection in a new context

Christine M. Flowers: Priest's execution in Syria should be call to action

Courtnie Erickson: How to help kids accept the poor decisions of others

Lizette Borreli: A Glass Of Milk A Day Keeps Knee Arthritis At Bay

Lizette Borreli: 5 Health Conditions Your Breath Knows Before You Do

The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom Coconut Walnut Bars' golden brown morsels are a beautifully balanced delectable delight

April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Oct. 10, 2012/ 24 Tishrei, 5773

Why do so many pollsters say Obama is leading?

By Jack Kelly




http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | My formative experience in politics came at age 16, when I ran the Goldwater campaign in Columbia County, Wis., because the senior party leaders wanted nothing to do with him. I was sure Barry would win because ... because I wanted him to.

As you may recall, Barry didn't win. Ever since, I've been able to distinguish pretty well between what I'd like to have happen in an election, and what I think will happen. I haven't been wrong about the outcome of a presidential race since 1964.

President Barack Obama is cruising toward re-election, most polls indicate. The signs I read say different.

No president with a job approval below 50 percent has ever been re-elected. Nor has any president aside from FDR been re-elected when the unemployment rate was higher than 7.4 percent. There's a first time for everything. This could be the year those things happen, and the year in which undecided voters don't break heavily toward the challenger. But that's not the way to bet.

The polls that show President Obama with a lead beyond the margin of error assume he and his party will be as or more popular than they were in 2008, when Democratic turnout exceeded GOP turnout by 7 percentage points.

But Democrats have bested Republicans by an average of just 3 points in elections since 1984. There was a tie in 2004, another in the 2010 midterms. This year will be more like 2004:

• In a Rasmussen poll in August, for the first time ever, more respondents said they were Republicans than said they were Democrats.

• Voter registration in both parties is down, but the decline among Democrats is 10 times greater.

• Republicans are more excited about voting, according to a Fox News poll Sept. 28.

• Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan draw larger and more enthusiastic crowds than the president does.

Factor all this together, and partisan turnout figures to fall between D+3 and R+1.

A CNN/ORC poll last week showed the president ahead, 50 to 47, but Mr. Romney leading by 8 percentage points among independents. He led by 4 among independents in two other polls released last week. Mr. Obama won independents, 52-44, in 2008.

Up to 18 percent of white Democrats may cross over to vote for Mr. Romney, according to a Rasmussen poll in July. Far fewer Republicans will vote for the president. So if Mr. Romney wins independents, and partisan turnout falls between D+3 and R+1, Mr. Obama can't be ahead. Why do so many pollsters say he is?

• A skyrocketing refusal rate produces a Democratic skew, because Republicans are more likely to hang up on pollsters. Pew Research has a response rate of just 9 percent this year. There was no answer in 38 percent of households. In 53 percent, someone answered the phone, but wouldn't take the poll.

• To save money, some pollsters randomly dial numbers rather than work from a known sample of registered voters. This increases the skew toward Democrats.

But many polls have partisan samples that aren't even in the same time zone as reality. (It was D+19 in one Pew poll.) Skews so great rarely are accidental.

"Democrats want to convince [anti-Obama voters] Romney will lose to discourage them from voting," said GOP pollster John McLaughlin. "So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models."

Major pollsters have samples of Republicans at "low levels not seen since the 1960s" he said. "The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias."

Contrary to what those who slant polls want you to believe, this election is in Mitt Romney's hands.

At this point in 1980, Americans believed Jimmy Carter was a failed president, but weren't sure the alternative would be better. In their debates, Ronald Reagan convinced them he would be, and won 489 electoral votes.

A Reaganesque result isn't possible for candidates of either party in today's highly partisan, bitterly divided political atmosphere. But most Americans already have decided Mr. Obama's job performance is unsatisfactory. Mr. Romney hasn't yet persuaded us he'd be do better -- though his debate performance Wednesday was a big step in that direction. He could win comfortably if he does.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

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JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.

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© 2011, Jack Kelly

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