Nicholas M. Horrock
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com | North Korea's disclosure that for eight years it maintained a secret nuclear weapons program has given the Bush administration new credibility on "axis of evil" warnings, but may complicate taking action against Iraq, according to arms experts.
Even though the disclosure is only a few days old, it has major implications for President George W. Bush and his effort to compel Iraq to disarm and open its country to thorough U.N. inspections.
Jon Wolfstal, a former Clinton administration arms expert, argues that the North Korean disclosure could not come at a worse time for the Bush administration. Wolfstal worked in North Korea in 1995 on aspects of the agreement it abrogated.
"They have two alternatives," he said. "Either confront North Korea for which they have to have South Korea on board or broker another deal." He said that while simultaneous confrontations on two fronts, Iraq and North Korea, are possible for the United States, it would stretch resources. He thought it unlikely Bush could treat North Korea differently than Iraq.
Administration officials say that Iraq is unique, and deserves different treatment.
Bush was derided in Europe and by some in the United States on Jan. 28 when he labeled North Korea, Iraq and Iran as an "axis of evil" for their development of weapons of mass destruction. A few weeks later, when the president visited the DMZ between South and North Korea, his tough language was again attacked in some Asian and U.S. media for possibly derailing South Korea's peace initiative with the North.
But several analysts believe it was this tough stance that was part of the pressure that made North Korea, as Brookings Institution analyst Mike O'Hanlon phrased it, "come clean" and admit to the secret program. Certainly O'Hanlon and others stress it was U.S. intelligence that forced the disclosure by finally getting solid information on the secret operations. Nevertheless they acknowledged that Bush's firm stance may have persuaded Pyongyang it was no good arguing about it.
What is thorny for Bush, O'Hanlon points out, is how to construct a plan to carry the disclosure to disarmament without the threat of military action as he has done in Iraq.
It was a tough stance by the Clinton administration in 1994 that got the agreement to halt one reactor program and open the door to inspections. At that time, U.S. intelligence had become convinced that North Korea was diverting nuclear technology from legitimate uses to a bomb program. The United States threatened to cut off economic aid to the impoverished country and even considered bombing the reactors. North Korea caved in and agreed to dismantle the program over 10 years and allow full inspections.
But Helmut Sonnenfeldt, a member of the National Security Council under Henry Kissinger and an Asian security expert, said it is clear that the North Koreans "had a lot more caves than we were able to inspect" and this underscored the limitations of satellite intelligence and arms inspections. He said, however, that several analysts in the Defense Intelligence Agency and the CIA had been suspicious for years that the North Koreans had not abandoned efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.
Sonnenfeldt said both China and Russia have significant economic ties and projects in North Korea, and he speculated that the two countries either didn't know about the secret program or didn't tell the United States. China and Russia have been opposed to Bush's request for a tougher resolution from the U.N. Security Council before inspectors go back into Iraq.
The Bush administration has been steadfast since January in pointing out the dangers of North Korea. Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, called the country an arms "bazaar" in one briefing for their aggressive sale around the world of missile technology. Though Iraq has no vehicle for sending a nuclear-tipped missile to the United States, North Korea has developed a missile that could hit Alaska, and would be devastating danger to Japan.
In a 1998 firing, the missile, allegedly a test gone wrong, passed over Japan and landed in Russian waters off Alaska.
The nuclear disclosure seems to be part of an effort by North Korea to reach out for new foreign economic support. Several weeks ago, after a meeting with the Japanese premier, North Korea began providing information on people it abducted from Japan during the Cold War.
When North Korea signed the 1994 agreement it said it would shut down a reactor at Yongbyon that could be used to develop weapons-grade material and in exchange the United States agreed to give them two $4 billion light water reactors that would be less useful for weapons development. These reactors are not complete.
For months since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, Bush has reiterated that the world is a dangerous place, but after the United States defeated the Taliban last winter, the warnings and concern had seemed to some overwrought. But in the past few weeks alone, there have been several events that bore him out. A terrorist allegedly drove an explosive-laden small boat into the side of a French tanker in Yemen harbor, a U.S. Marine was killed in Kuwait, and then last weekend, a nightclub and other buildings in Bali were destroyed by a blast killing more than 180 people. Bush has linked all those attacks to al Qaida, and it has renewed American awareness.
The surprise disclosures that a nation would brazenly lie to international bodies suggests that Bush's criticism of arms inspections as a way to assure compliance may be valid in Iraq. Though intelligence agencies finally got key reliable information, the North Korean admission underscores that satellite and electronic eavesdropping were unable for years to find out what the North Koreans were doing.
Nicholas M. Horrock is Chief White House Correspondent for UPI. Comment by clicking here.
