Barack Obama was elected President primarily because he is an eloquent, persuasive campaigner. To many voters he seemed to represent a much wanted change. He has turned out to be an indecisive President, who inspires neither respect in his allies nor fear in his enemies.
In contrast, Vladimir Putin is the most formidable Russian potentate since Joseph Stalin. He has a clear programto rebuild the Soviet empireand is totally ruthless in pursuing it. Trained in the KGB, Putin is an expert liar, forger and bully, whose instincts are a brilliant mix of the brazen and the deceptive. He makes Obama seem like a child.
Putin also has the enthusiastic support of a powerful segment of Russian opinion, including vociferous members of the old Soviet hierarchythe military, bureaucrats and intelligentsiaand the more rabid leaders of the Orthodox church, not to mention the dispossessed rulers of the former Soviet colonies. He can therefore pose as a populist and act like a tyrant.
But Putin is also vulnerable. His besetting weakness is vanity, exhibited in publicity shots in which he vaunts his bare torso and muscular physique (exactly like Benito Mussolini) or in which he's shown walking through the Kremlin's gilded state rooms, being bowed through the doors by guards dressed in ceremonial Napoleon-era uniforms.
In due course Khrushchev's politburo colleagues ganged up on him and dismissed him for "adventurism." He ended up on a park bench in a Moscow suburb, buttonholing strangers and boasting of his former greatness.
Could Putin go the same way? "Adventurism" perfectly describes his policy in Ukraine. He delights in high-risk moves and bellicose public postures. But he would recoil from any serious possibility of war with the West, which would be bound to be nuclear.
One should remember Talleyrand's wise axiom: "Russia is never as strong as it looks. Russia is never as weak as it looks." There may be a noisy nationalist wing to which Putin turns for encouragement and supportand we should never underestimate its grass-roots followingbut there's also a large and growing Russian middle class that's doing fairly well in the post-Cold War climate and wants to hang on to its prosperity and prospects. The West can appeal to this class over the heads of Putin and his nationalists.
But to do this successfully will require a reinvigorated NATO. The EU is, to use poker terminology, a busted flush. The euro zone is in permanent recession. Even Germany is doing badly. Its leader, Angela Merkel, is too burdened with Teutonic war guilt to take a strong, independent stance. France's amorous and idiotic president, François Hollande, is destroying his own Socialist base in his futile efforts to restart the recessive French economy. Italy, a gruesome model of misgovernment, now has a smaller per capita GNP than it had 15 years ago. The bureaucracy in Brusselswhose tipsy president-elect, Jean-Claude Juncker, is a typical productexerts a tighter grip than ever. Consequently, there is no prospect of the EU's coming together as a whole to exploit Putin's weakness.
A RESURRECTION OF RESOLVE
NATO is a different matter. A revival is a distinct possibility, especially if Boris Johnson takes over Britain's leadership from David Cameron. His voice could help return NATO to its sense of mission. Parts of Europe, such as Poland and the Baltic states, that were long occupied by the Soviet Union and know exactly what it's like to live under Russia's thumb are beginning to exert their influence and make their voices heard.
But without U.S. leadership NATO can't work effectively. As long as a comatose President lingers on in Washington, Putin's adventurism will continue. It will require a resurrection of American resolve to send Putin where he belongsto the oblivion of a park bench.
Comment by clicking here.
Eminent British historian and author Paul Johnson's latest book is "American Presidents Eminent Lives Boxed Set: George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Ulysses S. Grant".