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Jewish World Review Sept. 14, 2010 / 6 Tishrei, 5771 GOP Insiders Wary of Landslide Predictions By Byron York http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Things have gotten out of hand when it comes to predictions of a Republican victory in the upcoming midterm elections. In recent days, talk of a GOP edge has turned into talk of a GOP blowout. Prognosticators have upgraded the coming political storm from Category 4 to Category 5. Republican control of the House has gone from possible to inevitable. But Republicans don't believe it, or at least the insiders involved in the midterm effort don't believe it. As they see it, they're in a good position to pick up the 39 seats needed to win control of the House, but polls showing a huge GOP lead are simply wrong. "I'm assuming that Cook and Rothenberg and Rove and the others have got different indications from what we've got," says one member of the House GOP election team. "I don't want to overestimate what's out there." "I think it's about even," says a strategist involved in the GOP effort. "That is a remarkable place to be, given where we were in the '08 election. But it's about even." The landslide talk was based on two high-profile polls. One, from Gallup, showed Republicans with an unprecedented 10-point lead in the so-called "generic ballot" question -- whether voters will choose the Democratic or Republican candidate in their congressional election. The other poll, from the Washington Post and ABC News, showed the GOP with a 13-point lead. There are problems with both polls. First, Gallup's surveys have been pretty uneven this election season. Indeed, Gallup has since released a new poll showing the generic-ballot question dead even, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in its finding of a 10-point GOP lead. As for the Post poll, Republican insiders say it (uncharacteristically) skews things toward the GOP. The 13-point margin is among people judged by the Post to be most likely to vote this November. Among all registered voters, Republicans have a thin two-point lead in the same poll. Which count is more accurate? Republicans usually score higher with likely voters. But the election is still more than seven weeks away. Counting only likely voters at this point "screens out Democratic groups that you know are going to be there at the end," says the GOP consultant. "There are unions and African-Americans who typically get their information late, from leadership or the pulpit." In other words, those reliable Democrats will become likely voters soon enough. Former Republican Rep. Vin Weber, a veteran of many campaigns, predicts Democrats "are going to have some success in bringing their troops home and rousing their base over the next few weeks," although Weber predicts Republicans will ultimately win control of the House. As they look at the polls, some Republicans remember the painful near-death experience of 1998. In that year of scandal and partisan warfare, then-Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted the GOP would pick up as many as 40 seats in midterm voting. That's what some of the likely voter surveys seemed to indicate. But when Election Day came around, the GOP lost five seats, clinging to power by the barest of margins. A few days later, Gingrich, the architect of the party's smashing 1994 victory, resigned. Now, the man who would most likely be speaker if the GOP wins, Rep. John Boehner, is disdaining talk of a Republican rout and campaigning virtually 24/7. In the past couple of weeks, Boehner has stumped for Republicans in North Dakota, California, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kansas and Iowa, as well as tending his own political fences in Ohio. "Thirty-nine seats is a very steep hill to climb," says Boehner representative Kevin Smith. "Obviously, earning back the majority is our goal, but no one is taking anything for granted." Some of the talk downplaying the GOP lead may be counterspin to ensure Republicans don't become overconfident. "We don't want to cause our voters to get lax and think we've got it," says the member of the election team. But Republicans are also genuinely concerned about peaking too soon. "The notion of a wave that is already large and is going to build the next six or seven weeks into a massive Republican triumph is not, I think, accurate," says Weber. Perhaps the best way to characterize the GOP election team now is confident but nervous -- confident that the basic trends of the election are going their way but nervous at the talk of a runaway victory. Be on guard against irrational exuberance, they're telling supporters -- and be sure to vote on Nov. 2. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. Comment on Byron York's column by clicking here. Previously: 08/31/10 For Obamacare supporters, judgment day approaches 08/23/10 Obama has himself to blame for Muslim problem 08/17/10 Cut spending without cutting services? Start here 08/17/10 For Michelle Obama, extravagance dents popularity 08/09/10 Obama's zealous civil rights enforcer gets busy 08/02/10 A battle between Left and Right --- inside the GOP 07/26/10 GOP spoiling for fight over Berwick appointment 07/20/10 How long will the public tolerate Afghan war? 07/12/10 NASA's Muslim outreach: Al Jazeera told first 07/02/10 Legal complaint against Gore is detailed, credible 06/28/10 Obama and Dems heading for electoral disaster 06/21/10 Who told Obama drilling is ‘absolutely safe’? 06/14/10 Billions for ‘green jobs,’ whatever they are 06/07/10 Sestak a no-go for any job. So what was the deal? 05/31/10 As economic worries worsen, White House puts on the glitz 05/25/10 GOP dilemma: Fight Kagan, or go along? 05/11/10 Enforcing nation's immigration laws would be a bargain 05/03/10 How Obama could lose Arizona immigration battle 04/27/10 What's behind the anti-Tea Party hate narrative? 04/20/10 As government expands, beware the post-office example 04/19/10 Who wins in 2010? Good luck reading tea leaves 04/12/10 GOP Obamacare strategy: Try repeal, then cut 04/05/10 Obamacare was mainly aimed at redistributing wealth 03/30/10 Message to Dems: People still don't like Obamacare 03/23/10 The coming consequences of Obamacare 03/16/10 Marco Rubio and the Republicans who love him 03/15/10 GOP hopes town halls take health care off table 03/08/10 Dems turn risky health vote into manhood contest 03/01/10 Why Obama defies the public on health care 02/22/10 South Carolina mulls 2012: Romney? Palin? Huck? 02/16/10 GOP winning war over Miranda rights for terrorists 02/09/10 Who are the 300 terrorists held in U.S. prisons? 02/02/10 Is Obama dissatisfied with being president? 01/19/10 The Republican dilemma: Good Michael or Bad Michael? 01/12/10 Now the lawmakers are figuring out what they didn't know 01/05/10 GOP deserves blame for Democratic excesses 12/29/09 Dems' dreams of a blue West begin to turn red 12/22/09 Why Dems push health care, even if it kills them 11/30/09 Dems' kamikaze mission: Health care by New Year's 11/23/09 Why it's a mistake to bring Gitmo prisoners here 11/16/09 Dems' slick fix: $210 billion of fiscal restraint 11/10/09 Obama can't be community organizer for the world 11/02/09 At key moment, Obama leaves health post unfilled 10/26/09 ‘Fierce urgency' for jobs, not health care’ 10/12/09 Facts hurt Jennings in youth sex controversy 10/05/09 Amid terror threat, Dems chip away at Patriot Act 09/27/09 In Afghanistan, let U.S. troops be warriors 09/21/09 Under fire, Democrats abandon ACORN in drove 09/14/09 Dems stifle Republican health care plans 09/08/09 For Dems, a serious Charlie Rangel problem 09/07/09 Obama's speech: Wrong setting for a sales job 09/01/09 What happened to the antiwar movement? 08/24/09 Why Dems may jam through health care plan 08/17/09 GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010 08/10/09 The empty words of a journalist turned flack 08/03/09 Probe finds new clues in AmeriCorps IG scandal 07/27/09 Obamacare haunted by unkept promises of stimulus 07/20/09 Why the GOP failed the Sotomayor test 07/13/09 What the GOPers will ask Sotomayor 06/29/09 Serious questions remain for Mark Sanford 06/22/09 How GOPers can crack the AmeriCorps scandal 06/16/09 Worried about Sotomayor? Consider Andre Davis 06/08/09 Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP? 06/01/09 When the Dems derailed a Latino nominee 05/26/09 Why the GOP will defeat Obama on healthcare 05/19/09 Rosy report can't hide stimulus problems 05/12/09 The Reagan legacy is the man himself 05/05/09 Sen. Specter, meet your new friends 04/27/09 Ted Olson: ‘Torture’ probes will never end 04/20/09 Who's Laughing at the ‘Axis of Evil’ today? 04/14/09 Congress needs Google to track stimulus money 04/06/09 Beyond AIG: A bill to let Big Government set your salary 03/30/09 On Spending and the Deficit, McCain Was Right 03/24/09 It's Obama's crisis now 03/17/09: Geithner-Obama economics: A joke that's not funny © 2009, NEA

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