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Jewish World Review Sept. 1, 2010 / 22 Elul 5770 Bernanke shows off his popguns By Robert Robb http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | In his speech at the Jackson Hole retreat last week, Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to show that the Fed still had plenty of ammunition to fire, if necessary, in the fight for economic recovery. Instead, he demonstrated that all he has are popguns. According to Bernanke, the Fed could: (1) buy even more stuff, creating even more money out of thin air in the process; (2) change its official statement to indicate an intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy even longer than the current statement suggests; and (3) reduce the already low interest rate the Fed pays on bank reserves. The only substantive move would be to buy more stuff. But if creating $2 trillion out of thin air by buying securities hasn't triggered a recovery, why the assumption that doing even more of it will turn the trick? All of these options would be designed to do what Fed policy to date has been designed to do: lower interest rates. But if lower interest rates were the key to this recovery, we'd all already be driving streets paved with gold. Bernanke believes that the problem is a lack of consumer confidence. Consumers aren't willing to spend so businesses aren't gearing up to meet a demand that doesn't exist. The real economic problem, however, is uncertainty. Uncertainty can lead to a lack of confidence, but it is not the same thing. And Bernanke is contributing to uncertainty by indicating that the Fed plans to manage monetary policy based upon quarter-to-quarter economic results rather than for the long-haul. The economy is awash with cash. Banks and businesses are sitting on trillions of dollars. Business fundamentals are sound. Businesses are profitable and price-earnings ratios are historically low. If banks are unwilling to lend, interest rates need to be higher, not lower. And lenders need confidence that the dollar will retain its value over time. Despite Europe's recent troubles, the dollar has declined 42 percent compared to the euro over the last decade. The Greenspan-Bernanke period of loose money, which Bernanke pledges to continue, creates lender uncertainty. Not that there is a big unmet demand by borrowers. They face their own uncertainties. For there to be a sustainable recovery, the economy must first find solid footing. Yet federal monetary and fiscal policies keep attempting to interrupt the corrections necessary to reach that solid footing, while throwing off new uncertainties all the time. Here is what is necessary to reach that solid footing, from which a sustainable economic recovery would be possible: The housing correction needs to be allowed to run its course without government efforts to prop up prices or demand. Households need to be allowed to restore and improve their savings without government importuning or incentives to spend, spend, spend. The Fed needs to develop a credible plan to withdraw all the money it created out of thin air and protect the long-term value of the dollar. Congress needs to set tax policy for the next 10 years, not the next two, even if it is in a bad place. The federal government needs to develop a credible plan to reduce spending and borrowing. Some of this, particularly the last point, isn't likely to happen. But there isn't likely to be a sustainable recovery until federal monetary and fiscal policies become less of a moving target. If policy is semi-set, economic actors can calculate risks. But if policy is a moving target, risk calculation becomes infinitely harder. There are still die-hards, unfortunately many in positions of authority, but it should be clear by now that loose monetary policy and deficit spending aren't going to trigger a sustainable economic recovery. That requires a firmer foundation. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. JWR contributor Robert Robb is a columnist for The Arizona Republic. Comment by clicking here. Robert Robb Archives © 2010, The Arizona Republic

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