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February 10, 2012
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Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
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Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
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Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
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January 30, 2012
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January 27, 2012
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Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
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Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
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Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
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Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
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Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
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January 13, 2012
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January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
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John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
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January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
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Jewish World Review
Sept. 24, 2008
/ 24 Elul 5768
Obama vs. Bubba vote
By
Clarence Page
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
What is Barack Obama's biggest remaining obstacle on his road to the White House? A nationally prominent Republican sums it up in a word: "Bubba."
"The Bubba vote is there, and it's very real, and it is everywhere," former House Majority Leader Dick Armey recently said. "There's an awful lot of people in America, bless their heart, who simply are not emotionally prepared to vote for a black man."
Sad, but true. I hate to nickname the problem "Bubba." I used to have a beloved Alabama uncle named Bubba. I loved "Unca Bubba." He taught me how to milk a cow when I was seven years old. I'll be eternally grateful.
"Bubba" began as country slang for "brother." I don't know how it became a label for working-class white folks, but I'm sure my late Unca Bubba would want Dick Army and the rest of y'all to know that there are a lot of black Bubbas, too.
Anyway, as Armey implies, Obama fared worse in the primaries with white working-class males and their wives than he did with other identifiable groups of voters. That has also been typical of his party. Democratic presidential candidates have lost the white male vote in every presidential election since 1964, when President Lyndon B. Johnson, himself a quintessential Bubba in his younger days, beat Sen. Barry Goldwater.
Bill Clinton, another notable bearer of Bubba credentials, came closest in 1992. He was aided by third-party candidate Ross Perot's challenge to President George W. Bush, who, despite his Texas tenure, remains a bit Bubba-challenged.
Yet even Bubba knows something about political correctness these days, so he won't always tell the truth to pollsters. As a result, you will not always hear Bubba speak as candidly as Army, who now chairs the conservative think tank Freedom Works, spoke to editorial and reporters at USA Today and Gannett News Service, where he made his comments.
Nevertheless, as Armey said, race-based voting is "deplorable, but it is real." That's why, Obama has more reason than McCain to feel nervous about close polls.
In fact, if he fails to show at least a six-point advantage in the polls by Election Day, I expect John McCain to be our next president.
Where do I get that number? I'm no math whiz, but it did not take numerical genius for me to notice that Obama fared best in caucus states, where the voting happens to be conducted in public. Where votes were cast in the privacy of voting booths, Obama tended to do worse than polls predicted. When Obama showed a lead in the polls that fell within the margin of error, it tended to mean a victory for his principal opponent, Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Now new evidence has emerged to back my six-point theory. A new and unusually comprehensive AP-Yahoo poll that takes a look at racial attitudes offers this unsettling news: "Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice."
Of course, that's a rather grand statement, considering how difficult racial prejudice is to identify, let along measure. White people don't have to be racist to vote against Obama, any more than black people have to be a racist to vote for him. There are plenty of other reasons to vote for him or against him.
For example, how do you separate race from apprehensions that he's "maybe a little too sophisticated?" Or the relentless e-mails carrying false rumors that the Christian Obama is really a Muslim as if that would be a terrible thing?
Besides, Bubba might well be among the most inclined to see the 90-plus percent black turnout for Obama as justification to vote along racial lines, too, as if white people have had such a tough time as a race in this country.
Yet, one of today's quintessential Bubbas offers encouraging advice for Obama. Former President Bill Clinton, appearing on "The View," gave three good reasons why he thinks Obama will win: 1.) "Two-thirds of Americans are having trouble paying their bills." 2.) America is "growing more diverse," pulling the electorate toward Democrats. And 3.) voter registration is "up for Democrats and flat for Republicans in the 20 most important states."
Indeed, the fundamentals for a Democratic sweep are strong, partly because the fundamentals of the economy are so weak. That's a big reason why McCain's convention bump has faded and Obama has been running even or slightly ahead. But for Obama, if history is our guide, "slightly" isn't going to be good enough.
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