Home
In this issue
April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Sept. 16, 2008 / 16 Elul 5768

Bid'n his time?

By Jack Kelly

>
Printer Friendly Version
Email this article

http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | In what now seems the long ago days between the time Sen. John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate and her acceptance speech, there was considerable speculation in the news media that Sen. McCain would drop her from the ticket.


This was entirely a media invention. There was no sentiment among Republicans for replacing Ms. Palin, and Sen. McCain — whose loyalty to his friends nearly cost him his life in Vietnam — is not the kind of person who would desert his choice.


And there was a very practical reason why this option never was considered. Sen. George McGovern was going to lose in 1972 no matter what, but the final nail in his coffin was when he dumped running mate Thomas Eagleton after it was revealed Sen. Eagleton had had shock treatments for an unspecified mental illness. With one stroke, Sen. McGovern called into question both his judgment and his loyalty.


There has, of course, been no further speculation about dropping Sarah Palin from the ticket after her boffo performance in St. Paul. But my friend Steve Maloney (who first got me interested in Sarah Palin) says his sources in the Democratic Party are telling him Barack Obama is being pressured to dump Sen. Joseph Biden from the ticket and replace him with Hillary Clinton, the switch to come just after the vice presidential debate Oct. 2. Speculation about such a switch has emerged on several left-wing blogs.


"It's time to dump Biden and replace him with Sen. Hillary Clinton," said Andy Ostroy on the Huffington Post Monday. "I'm starting to think that if Team Obama doesn't do something dramatic fast, it's gonna lose this election."


What might prompt such an act of desperation? The polls — which indicate the race is a statistical dead heat — are cause for concern, but not for panic.


This might be the reason:


"Party elders also believe the Obama camp is in denial about warnings from Democratic pollsters that his true standing is four to six points lower than that in published polls because of hidden racism from voters," wrote Tim Shipman in the London Telegraph Sunday.


"While the polling is close I believe it is far worse than the numbers reflect given social apprehension of middle of the road uncommitted respondents to appear racist by not supporting Obama," wrote former Democratic congressional candidate Paul Hackett on the Daily Kos blog. "Thus instead of being down in Ohio by 3 or 4 points I would argue that for planning purposes the working assumption should indicate that Obama is down in Ohio by roughly 10 points."


If this is true (and I don't think that it is), then Sen. Obama is in very deep kimche. There are 12 states in which this election will be decided. Seven — Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada — were carried by President Bush in 2004. Five — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire — were carried by Sen. John Kerry.


To win, a candidate must amass 270 electoral votes. President Bush won 286 in 2004, so, Sen. McCain has 16 to play with. He could lose Iowa (7) and either Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) or Nevada (5) and still win the election.


As a practical matter, Sen. McCain can't win unless he carries both Florida (27) and Ohio (20), but he's already leading in both states, and if Mr. Hackett is right, then they're already out of Sen. Obama's reach.


Also as a practical matter, Sen. Obama can't win if he loses either Pennsylvania (21) or Michigan (17). The public polls indicate both states are tossups, but if Sen. McCain has a hidden 4-6 percentage point advantage, then he has the lead in both. New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington state and New Hampshire might also switch from blue to red, while the only red state in which Sen. McCain would be behind is Iowa.


State by state polls should be taken with a grain of salt. A recent poll indicated a 20 percentage point lead for Sen. McCain in North Carolina, and a statistical tie in Virginia.


North Carolina was, on average, three percentage points more Republican than Virginia in the last two presidential elections. It's inconceivable nearly 20 percentage points could be separating them now. The massive turnout at a McCain-Palin rally in one of the bluest counties in Virginia a week ago suggests the North Carolina poll may be the more accurate.


Could a "Hail Hillary" pass change the grim arithmetic facing Sen. Obama? We may find out.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. Comment by clicking here.

Jack Kelly Archives


© 2008, Jack Kelly

Columnists

Toons

Lifestyles