Friday

March 29th, 2024

Insight

Joe Biden boomlet is over before it starts

Jonathan Bernstein

By Jonathan Bernstein

Published August 4, 2015

 Joe Biden boomlet is over before it starts

There's only one thing wrong with the Joe Biden presidential boomlet, which received a fair amount of news media attention over the weekend (some bought into it more than others). Democrats have repeatedly shown a thorough lack of interest in moving Joe Biden into the White House.

Biden, who is now 72, ran for president in 1988, successfully winning the interest of a dozen or more big-shot Democratic consultants, but drawing so little support elsewhere that he dropped out long before the Iowa caucuses. He then returned to the Senate and, like Ted Kennedy after his 1980 loss, set out to become a serious senator. Biden earned an excellent reputation for his work on the Judiciary Committee and on foreign-affairs matters.

His return to presidential politics in 2008 was another disaster. He failed to win 1 percent of delegate shares in Iowa, and once again dropped out.

Now consider the current cycle. Yes, he's vice president. But have you heard of a Draft Biden movement, as there was for Elizabeth Warren? Nope. Are any big-name Democrats pledging to support him if he runs (as half the Democrats in Congress did for Hillary Clinton)? No, none. Does he poll well among the rank and file? No, he doesn't.

HuffPollster's estimate is that he peaked at about 15 percent in Democratic trial heats for 2016 — and this was back in December 2012, a month after the Obama ticket won re-election. He has gradually lost ground since and has never come within 40 percentage points of Clinton.

Nor does Biden appear to have any natural constituency or any real opening, as The New Yorker's Ryan Lizza pointed out.

For one thing, as political scientist Matthew Dickinson points out, the most ardent enthusiasm for a Biden run is likely coming from the national press, which has a stake in a sharply contested nomination battle. If such a contest doesn't exist, many reporters will pretend it does (as they did in 2000 for John McCain and, to some extent, for Bill Bradley on the Democratic side).

Others who might benefit from a Biden run are the Democratic campaign professionals — pollsters, media consultants and others — who remain without a horse. The 17-candidate field on the Republican side is providing full employment for their counterparts in the other party. The Democrats only have a one-plus candidate field: Clinton is running a fully staffed campaign, but it isn't clear how many traditional operatives are being hired by Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb. The answer is probably "not many."

For those Democratic professionals still for hire, signing on to a long-shot campaign, as Biden's would be, is low risk, since no operative will be blamed for such a candidate's failure to win the nomination.

Beyond those interest groups, the vice president has friends and family who have been loyal to his career for years and have always pictured him in the big chair. It isn't a surprise they may want him to give it one more try.

We don't know yet if Biden will launch a no-chance presidential bid. The only sure thing right now is that the press will hype any hint of such a campaign — or other signs that the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination is up for grabs.

Jonathan Bernstein
Bloomberg News
(TNS)

Comment by clicking here.

Jonathan Bernstein, as a politicial scientist and author, is a Bloomberg View columnist.


Previously:


08/03/15: How to know when John Boehner is in trouble
07/14/15: Scott Walker tests tea party's seriousness
07/01/15: Chris Christie, king of the 2016 long shots
06/23/15: The next step if Obamacare loses in court
06/16/15: Jeb Bush and the Endless Campaign
06/15/15: Jeb Bush won't win if he's the safe choice
06/04/15: Why candidates are snubbing Iowa Straw Poll
06/03/15: Graham tests his luck in Republican primary
06/01/15: George Pataki has a pro-choice problem
05/28/15: Republicans may be forced to save Obamacare
05/06/15: Mike Huckabee will make history, win or lose
05/05/15: Why Hillary needs Sanders
02/25/15: Scott Walker isn't ceding party cash to Bush
02/23/15: How the Kochs wasted a fortune on campaigns
02/16/15: Why candidates can lie, but reporters can't
02/09/15: Don't mess with . . . Iowa --- as first caucus state
02/06/15: Biggest threat to Rand Paul in 2016?
02/04/15: Christie's measles vaccine madness explained
02/02/15: Two takeaways from Romney's latest
01/20/15: Ernst draws short straw with Obama response
01/16/15: Romney is the only one who thinks he's Reagan
01/13/15: How GOP underdogs could very well take on their establishment

Columnists

Toons