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Jewish World Review August 30, 2011 / 30 Menachem-Av, 5771 Keep your health plan? Don't count on it By Byron York http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | In June 2009, as he fought to pass the Democrats' national health care bill, President Obama made a clear, unequivocal pledge. "No matter how we reform health care, we will keep this promise to the American people," Obama said. "If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor, period. If you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away, no matter what." Spoken with great confidence, Obama's words were meant to reassure, and it's possible many Americans believed them. But at the same time, the president and his Democratic allies in Congress built the new health care law on provisions that, when acting together, guarantee that some people -- perhaps many people -- won't be able to keep their health care plans. On the one hand, the new law orders the establishment of health care "exchanges" through which anyone can purchase government-subsidized coverage. On the other hand, the law levies fines on employers who fail to offer coverage to their employees -- but sets the fine far below the cost of coverage. In 2010, the average employer paid $4,150 to cover a single employee and $9,773 for family coverage. (Both figures are about double what they were in 2000.) The new law sets fines at $2,000 for each instance in which an employer doesn't cover its worker. So when it takes effect in 2014, the law will give employers a choice: Continue to offer increasingly expensive health coverage, or pay a relatively small fine, save a lot of money and let employees buy their own subsidized coverage on the exchange. The incentive seems pretty clear. Now, it should surprise no one that more and more companies are exploring the possibility of dropping their employee health coverage in 2014. A new study from the benefits-consulting firm Towers Watson finds that nearly 10 percent of midsize to large companies are seriously considering doing just that, and another 20 percent are thinking about it. Still others don't know. "Many are uncertain how they will respond to the looming impact of state-based insurance exchanges in 2014," says Towers Watson. How many companies will actually drop their employee coverage? It's impossible to say. But from the latest surveys -- the Towers Watson report is just one of several that have found employers contemplating the move -- it's safe to say that some will, and more could follow. "I wouldn't expect it to happen overnight," says Paul Fronstin, director of health research at the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute. "If you look at the movement to managed care, or the movement away from defined benefit pension plans -- none of those things happened overnight. Somebody had to be first, and then it snowballed from there, but it played out over years, not months." Fronstin says the employer incentive to drop coverage is not quite as clear-cut as it appears. Even in this difficult economy, companies are concerned about the recruitment and retention of good employees. And then there is the fact that companies offer coverage today, with no law to compel them to do it, and no fine to pay if they drop it. Why would they stop in 2014? Here's the major reason: By that time the exchanges will be up and running, and workers who lose their coverage will be able to buy government-subsidized coverage. Employers who drop workers' coverage won't be throwing them into the cold as would be the case today. The bottom line is that the new system appears designed to push more and more people into the exchanges, with more and more people receiving health coverage subsidized by the government. For the cynical, it might even appear that is what Obama and his Democratic allies wanted all along. Remember that Obama said during a January 2008 debate, "If I were designing a system from scratch, I would set up a single-payer system." He couldn't pass a single-payer system, or even a public-option system, even when he had filibuster-proof majorities in Congress. But he could enact a system that will take a slower route in that direction. It's no surprise that the president isn't now solemnly promising the American people that "if you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan, period." But it seems likely that Americans will hear those words again. Perhaps in 2012 -- in Republican attack ads. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. Comment on Byron York's column by clicking here. Previously: 08/24/11 GOP operatives fear lasting Ron Paul problem 08/16/11 Michele Bachmann and the ‘submissive’ question 08/09/11 Obama partisans ignore facts when bashing Bush 08/02/11 When partisans fling charges of partisanship 07/26/11 Obama could be comeback kid if he heeds Clinton's lessons 07/19/11 Book casts doubt on Obama healthcare story 07/12/11 Controversial budget law begins to pay off 07/04/11 Anti-Mormon bias persists, notably among Dems 06/27/11 Huntsman tries McCain model, but he's no John McCain 06/06/11 Amid media circus, Palin lays out policy positions 05/30/11 GOP condemns Dems' ‘breathtaking’ refusal to produce budget 05/24/11 Eye-for-an-eye filibuster stops Democratic nominee 05/17/11 Amid RomneyCare fight, voters ask: Where's Mitt? 05/10/11 Bin Laden coup won't help Obama in budget fight 05/09/11 Inside the GOP debate: Pawlenty underwhelms, Cain struggles, Santorum scores 05/02/11 Huckabee decision will shape GOP presidential race 04/27/11 Get ready for game of chicken over debt ceiling 04/25/11 McCain: Libyan rebels seek U.S. recognition, might pay for war costs 04/18/11 Have the U.S. and NATO given up on Libya mess? 04/11/11 Reforming entitlements is key to a strong military 04/05/11 Jihadis Who Killed Americans Get U.S. Support in Libya 04/04/11 Unions deploy money and muscle in Battle of Wisconsin 03/30/11 Labor fight in Wisconsin is far from over 03/28/11 Obama fails to grasp the gravity of going to war 03/21/11 Union equates lavish benefits to black civil rights 03/15/11 GOP should heed lesson of 1991: No guts, no glory 03/14/11 GOP focuses on NPR's subsidies, not its politics 03/08/11 While Obama seeks new ideas, his bureaucrats stifle them 02/28/11 Why the GOP shouldn't fear a government shutdown 02/22/11 In Hawaii, a dispiriting glimpse of one-party rule 02/21/11 Obama team uses slippery words to tout budget 02/15/11 Myth and memory: The battle over Reagan's legacy 02/07/11 Invoking Reagan, Palin says ‘this is a time for choosing again’ 01/31/11 With each passing year, Reagan grows larger in the American political imagination 01/24/11 House GOP begins long drive to dismantle Obamacare 01/17/11 GOP gears up again to strip NPR of federal funds 01/10/11 To House GOP, illegal immigration is a jobs issue 01/03/11 Obamacare mess is legacy of Dems' moment of power 12/27/10 Smiling Dems will soon cry ‘Washington is broken’ 12/20/10 Dems are earmark junkies but GOP goes straight 12/13/10 Needed: A ‘more presidential’ Palin 12/06/10 With Dems in a funk, Obama charts a new course 11/29/10 Obama's poll numbers point to his defeat in 2012 11/22/10 Holder ignored risks of civilian terror trials 11/16/10 Dems love facts and science --- except when they don't 11/08/10 Obama, new GOP lawmakers are on collision course 11/01/10 New GOP star on track to defeat Dem legend Russ Feingold 10/26/10 If Dems lose, Obama will blame everyone but himself 10/19/10 Profligate Congress should read its own bills 10/13/10 Why Big Labor couldn't match Glenn Beck's rally 10/11/10 Trash-talking Democrat faces defeat in Florida 10/05/10 A GOP unknown in striking distance of Barney Frank 09/28/10 Administration inflates green-jobs numbers 09/20/10 In Delaware, GOP should target Dems, not O'Donnell 09/14/10 GOP Insiders Wary of Landslide Predictions 08/31/10 For Obamacare supporters, judgment day approaches 08/23/10 Obama has himself to blame for Muslim problem 08/17/10 Cut spending without cutting services? Start here 08/17/10 For Michelle Obama, extravagance dents popularity 08/09/10 Obama's zealous civil rights enforcer gets busy 08/02/10 A battle between Left and Right --- inside the GOP 07/26/10 GOP spoiling for fight over Berwick appointment 07/20/10 How long will the public tolerate Afghan war? 07/12/10 NASA's Muslim outreach: Al Jazeera told first 07/02/10 Legal complaint against Gore is detailed, credible 06/28/10 Obama and Dems heading for electoral disaster 06/21/10 Who told Obama drilling is ‘absolutely safe’? 06/14/10 Billions for ‘green jobs,’ whatever they are 06/07/10 Sestak a no-go for any job. So what was the deal? 05/31/10 As economic worries worsen, White House puts on the glitz 05/25/10 GOP dilemma: Fight Kagan, or go along? 05/11/10 Enforcing nation's immigration laws would be a bargain 05/03/10 How Obama could lose Arizona immigration battle 04/27/10 What's behind the anti-Tea Party hate narrative? 04/20/10 As government expands, beware the post-office example 04/19/10 Who wins in 2010? Good luck reading tea leaves 04/12/10 GOP Obamacare strategy: Try repeal, then cut 04/05/10 Obamacare was mainly aimed at redistributing wealth 03/30/10 Message to Dems: People still don't like Obamacare 03/23/10 The coming consequences of Obamacare 03/16/10 Marco Rubio and the Republicans who love him 03/15/10 GOP hopes town halls take health care off table 03/08/10 Dems turn risky health vote into manhood contest 03/01/10 Why Obama defies the public on health care 02/22/10 South Carolina mulls 2012: Romney? Palin? Huck? 02/16/10 GOP winning war over Miranda rights for terrorists 02/09/10 Who are the 300 terrorists held in U.S. prisons? 02/02/10 Is Obama dissatisfied with being president? 01/19/10 The Republican dilemma: Good Michael or Bad Michael? 01/12/10 Now the lawmakers are figuring out what they didn't know 01/05/10 GOP deserves blame for Democratic excesses 12/29/09 Dems' dreams of a blue West begin to turn red 12/22/09 Why Dems push health care, even if it kills them 11/30/09 Dems' kamikaze mission: Health care by New Year's 11/23/09 Why it's a mistake to bring Gitmo prisoners here 11/16/09 Dems' slick fix: $210 billion of fiscal restraint 11/10/09 Obama can't be community organizer for the world 11/02/09 At key moment, Obama leaves health post unfilled 10/26/09 ‘Fierce urgency' for jobs, not health care’ 10/12/09 Facts hurt Jennings in youth sex controversy 10/05/09 Amid terror threat, Dems chip away at Patriot Act 09/27/09 In Afghanistan, let U.S. troops be warriors 09/21/09 Under fire, Democrats abandon ACORN in drove 09/14/09 Dems stifle Republican health care plans 09/08/09 For Dems, a serious Charlie Rangel problem 09/07/09 Obama's speech: Wrong setting for a sales job 09/01/09 What happened to the antiwar movement? 08/24/09 Why Dems may jam through health care plan 08/17/09 GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010 08/10/09 The empty words of a journalist turned flack 08/03/09 Probe finds new clues in AmeriCorps IG scandal 07/27/09 Obamacare haunted by unkept promises of stimulus 07/20/09 Why the GOP failed the Sotomayor test 07/13/09 What the GOPers will ask Sotomayor 06/29/09 Serious questions remain for Mark Sanford 06/22/09 How GOPers can crack the AmeriCorps scandal 06/16/09 Worried about Sotomayor? Consider Andre Davis 06/08/09 Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP? 06/01/09 When the Dems derailed a Latino nominee 05/26/09 Why the GOP will defeat Obama on healthcare 05/19/09 Rosy report can't hide stimulus problems 05/12/09 The Reagan legacy is the man himself 05/05/09 Sen. Specter, meet your new friends 04/27/09 Ted Olson: ‘Torture' probes will never end 04/20/09 Who's Laughing at the ‘Axis of Evil’ today? 04/14/09 Congress needs Google to track stimulus money 04/06/09 Beyond AIG: A bill to let Big Government set your salary 03/30/09 On Spending and the Deficit, McCain Was Right 03/24/09 It's Obama's crisis now 03/17/09: Geithner-Obama economics: A joke that's not funny © 2009, NEA

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