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Jewish World Review August 17, 2005 / 12 Av, 5765 Bush threats overtaxing foreign policy By Robert Robb
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
The Bush administration may not be a lame duck presidency when it comes to
domestic policy. But events in Iran suggest that it may have become such
regarding international affairs.
In an Israeli television interview last week, President Bush said that all
options, including the use of military force, were on the table to prevent
Iran from developing a nuclear power fuel cycle that might be diverted to
produce material for a nuclear weapon.
This was not a new position. But the timing, occurring as Iranian
negotiations with the Europeans were breaking down and Iran was restarting
its uranium enrichment process, was notable.
Moreover, Bush seemed to go out of his way to provide credibility to the
threat, pointing out that he had "used force in the recent past to secure
our country," an obvious reference to Afghanistan and Iraq.
Yet, remarkably, this reinvigorated threat to use military force by a U.S.
president is unlikely to have any material effect on Iran's nuclear
development.
The purpose of the threat presumably was to get the diplomatic track moving
in the direction the Bush administration desires. It apparently wants the
International Atomic Energy Agency to refer Iran to the U.N. Security
Council, and for the Security Council to adopt sanctions if Iran refuses to
give up the development of a nuclear fuel cycle.
But this is an unlikely and probably futile approach.
In the first place, what would the IAEA refer?
Iran has been in violation of its obligations under the nuclear
non-proliferation treaty, conducting development activities since the 1980s
without reporting them to IAEA.
But it is now reporting and operating under the treaty's framework. There
remain some outstanding issues, but mostly about past activities, not
current ones.
Mohamed ElBaradei, IAEA's director general, says that while all declared
material in Iran is under verification, he cannot yet affirm that there are
no undeclared materials or activities there. But he is not portraying Iran
as currently uncooperative or hiding things.
The Bush administration wants Iran denied the ability to have a nuclear
fuel cycle irrespective of the degree of IAEA oversight. Its fear that Iran
will divert such material for the production of nuclear weapons is
appropriate and warranted. But under the non-proliferation treaty, Iran has
a right to develop a complete fuel cycle for the production of nuclear
energy.
It's a little late in the game to be referring Iran to the Security Council
for its past reporting failures. And an attempt to refer Iran for currently
doing what it has a right to do under the non-proliferation treaty would
certainly seem a nonstarter.
Even if the matter got to the Security Council, the chances that Russia and
China, both of which have significant and growing economic relations with
Iran, would go along with anything meaningful are remote.
So, what sort of military action might the Bush administration credibly
threaten to induce Iran to give up development of a nuclear power fuel
cycle? In his Israeli television interview, Bush seemed to leave open even
the possibility of regime change in Iran, saying that he has been willing
to take military action "to secure the country and to provide the
opportunity for people to live in free societies."
I'm not one for neocon conspiracy theories to explain the Bush
administration's foreign policy. But there is a point of view, which became
ascendant in the Bush administration after 9/11, that holds that the United
States should use its influence and dominant military power to shape the
world.
In some respects, this is a benign hubris. The Bush administration has been
pushing for the spread of democracy and free markets, which would be good
for this country and for people everywhere, particularly those living in
oppression or poverty.
But the dissipation of American military power in Iraq and our increasing
irrelevance regarding Iran's nuclear developments offer sobering lessons
about the practical limits of U.S. influence in a fast-developing world.
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JWR contributor Robert Robb is a columnist for The Arizona Republic. Comment by clicking here.
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Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||
