Who's rising, who's falling and who's invisible

The first round of Democratic debates today and Thursday provides an opportunity for candidates to reintroduce - or in many cases, introduce - themselves to the Democratic electorate. Each candidate will have different goals, depending on his or her recent performance.

The one candidate with momentum, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has the benefit of appearing with very congenial contenders unlikely to attack her (e.g. Beto O'Rourke, Sen. Amy Klobuchar). Without another top-tier contender on the stage, Warren can dominate the debate, outshining the rest in a low-stress environment. Her biggest challenge is to explain how her panoply of policy plans is financially and politically feasible. What if her proposed wealth tax doesn't bring in enough money? What if all Republicans and a few conservative Democrats shoot down her domestic agenda?

Several candidates have fallen on difficult times of late. Their goal is to debunk the perception that they have lost momentum and to pleasantly surprise audiences that are expecting them to show weakness.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has been falling in the polls, even slipping behind Warren. As Nate Silver put it, "if I were putting my own money down - we're pretty early, but I would sooner have money on Warren than on Sanders." When Sanders is pushed or feels pressured, he can lash out - a big no-no in a primary where Democrats have little patience for the proverbial circular firing squad.

Former vice president Joe Biden will be on the hot seat, as any front-runner is in these events. Defending himself without being defensive, showing that he's a 21st-century candidate while citing decades of experience and demonstrating that he's moderate enough for moderates but progressive enough for progressives might all be a tall order. Now is the time, however, for Biden to put minds at ease and stop the flow of bad news stories. Two factors work in his favor: the deep affection that Democrats feel for him and the heavy price that opponents who attack him might pay.

A week ago, we would have put South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the same category as Warren, a rising star. However, a South Bend police officer's fatal shooting of a black man, coupled with Buttigieg's inability to soothe angry African American residents, has underscored his difficulty in drawing African American support. Sunday might have been the worst day of Buttigieg's political career. The New York Times reports:

"Though many in the crowd clapped politely for Mr. Buttigieg, the meeting was dominated by members of the audience who loudly yelled their objections to the event's format and to the mayor's answers. When Mr. Buttigieg talked about the city's requirement that officers use their body cameras, someone called out, 'Why haven't you been enforcing it, then?' When the mayor defended his record of engaging residents on policing issues, another person shouted, 'We don't trust you.'

"At a few points Mr. Buttigieg asked the audience for quiet and to stop interrupting him. He listened to complaints about a pattern of police mistreatment of black people. He admitted failures. He promised to do better. But at the same time, there was little of the soothing emotional empathy that politicians strive to deliver in such moments."

How Buttigieg addresses this incident specifically and his larger problem with African American voters might determine whether he continues to occupy the top tier of candidates. This might be one problem that even his masterful TV performances cannot solve.

Then there are the candidates for whom political extinction remains the most likely result of their presidential runs. If better-known figures (e.g. Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Sen. Cory Booker) cannot outshine candidates ahead of them in the polls, their chances for political survival diminish. If lesser-known and improbable candidates (e.g. John Delaney, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Rep. Eric Swalwell) don't have a career-best performance with a viral moment, they might sink into oblivion.

Finally, there is a woman with her own category: Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif. She had arguably the best kickoff of any candidate and possesses raw political talent second to none. Nevertheless, she has not broken into the top tier. Too cautious? Lacking specificity? No one has exactly put his or her finger on the issue, but Harris took it up a notch this weekend with excellent performances at the Friday fish fry hosted by Rep. James Clyburn , D-S.C., at her speech and then MSNBC interview at the South Carolina Democratic Party convention and then at a Planned Parenthood Action Fund forum.

She was fiery. ("I know how to take on predators. I took on the big banks and won over 20 billion dollars, I took on for-profit colleges and put them out of business, I took on oil companies who were polluting our environment, I took on transnational criminal organizations who were praying on women and children. I know how to get that job done. ... So, let me tell you, we need somebody on our stage when it comes time for the general election who knows how to recognize a rap sheet when they see it and prosecute the case, so let's read that rap sheet, shall we?") She was inspirational. She was empathetic and personally revealing. She was herself. If she can do that in the debates - the only woman in the block of four center-stage contenders that night - she can shake up the race.

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