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April 21, 2014

Andrew Silow-Carroll: Passoverkill? Suggestions to make next year's seders even more culturally sensitive

Sara Israelsen Hartley: Seeking the Divine: An ancient connection in a new context

Christine M. Flowers: Priest's execution in Syria should be call to action

Courtnie Erickson: How to help kids accept the poor decisions of others

Lizette Borreli: A Glass Of Milk A Day Keeps Knee Arthritis At Bay

Lizette Borreli: 5 Health Conditions Your Breath Knows Before You Do

The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom Coconut Walnut Bars' golden brown morsels are a beautifully balanced delectable delight

April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review

How to Invest in an Aging Bull Market

By Steven Goldberg





Stay with stocks, says Jim Stack, a market analyst with a terrific record who thinks the run could last up to two more years


JewishWorldReview.com | The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter. The Russell 2000 index of small companies tumbled nearly 10% this spring. High-octane "momentum stocks" likewise got clocked. And the bull market is now the fourth-longest since 1928. Time to sell stocks?

Not so fast, says Jim Stack, editor of InvesTech Market Research Analyst, who's advising subscribers to put 82% of their investments in stocks. Stack, in my view, has sound reasons for being bullish. What's more, his record offers a reason to take his market calls seriously.

Calling market turns is a perilous business at best, and Stack has made mistakes--most significantly becoming bearish too early in the 1990s. But his long-term record is superior. Over the past 15 years through April 30, the authoritative Hulbert Financial Digest reports, Stack's model portfolio returned an annualized 8.5%, compared with 5.0% annualized for the Wilshire 5000, a measure of the broad U.S. stock market. Stack was also on target about the onset of the bear market on October 9, 2007, and about its conclusion, on March 9, 2009. He's been (correctly) bullish ever since.

Stack employs both economic data and technical analysis to make his market prognostications. Here's what he sees now:


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Stock market breadth. Many more stocks are rising than falling. Technicians like Stack read that as a bullish sign. Likewise, far more stocks are setting new 52-week highs than new lows--another healthy sign. What's more, an index Stack has compiled of stocks that he says tend to lead the market has been making new highs.

Market advances are inclined to become increasingly narrow when bull markets are drawing to a close, technicians believe. Such a bearish development is nowhere on the horizon, Stack says, despite the recent weakness in small-cap stocks. The blow-off of high-octane tech and biotech "story stocks" in March and April, Stack says, dealt a blow to market excesses. "You need those kinds of corrections to temper speculation."

A slowly growing but improving economy. Yes, economic growth remains achingly slow, but Stack sees this as bullish: A slow recovery makes it less likely that the economy will overheat, leading to an increase in inflation. But the decline in gross domestic product in the first quarter at a 1% annualized rate was almost certainly due to weather.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management surveys show increasing growth both in the service and manufacturing sectors. The Conference Board's measures of consumer confidence, CEO confidence and its leading economic indicators all point to economic expansion.

The market's technical and the positive economic signs suggest to Stack that the bull market is in no imminent danger of ending. Historically, he points out, the end of bull markets tend to be slow, rounded affairs. That means you don't need to sell stocks the first week the market declines to avoid getting clocked. (New bull markets, by contrast, typically take off like rockets.)

Not that Stack doesn't see negatives. Here's what worries him:

The bull market's age. In investing, patterns tend to repeat. Since 1928, only three bull markets have lasted longer than the current one, which is nearly 63 months old. "Bull markets don't die of old age," Stack says, but as time goes on, the odds against their continuation lengthen.

Housing weakness. Sales of existing homes and other housing indicators rebounded after the Great Recession ended, but they have been weak of late. Part of that was due to the bad winter, but further declines could increase the odds of a recession. Housing and related spending account for almost 20% of GDP. What's more, housing can have a big influence on overall consumer confidence. Even homeowners who don't plan to move tend to cut back on spending when housing prices fall in their area.



Margin debt. Margin debt, money borrowed in brokerage accounts (and often used to invest more heavily), has dipped from near record highs in recent months. High levels of margin show increased speculation in the market. When margin begins unwinding from high levels, stocks often fall.

Stack's best guess is that the bull market will end sometime over the next six to 24 months. What's worse, he expects the next bear market to be doozy.

From the start of the bull market through June 3, Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has delivered a total return, including dividends, of 218% (or 24.7% annualized). Since 1928, every bear market save one, Stack says, has taken back more than half of the prior bull market's gains. That's sobering.

What to do now? Rather than selling stocks, Stack recommends that you emphasize sectors that have historically done well both in the final 12 months of a bull market and in bear markets: energy and health care. Stack's recommended portfolio also has big positions in consumer staples, which often do well in down markets, and technology, which tends to outperform in the last few months of bull markets.

Stack currently recommends that fund investors put 82% of their money into various SPDR-brand, exchange-traded sector funds. His biggest positions are in Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV), 14%; Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP), 13%; Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), 12%; and Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), 11%.

Frankly, I think Stack's approach is a little too cute. In my view, the safer course is to stay invested, but load up on stock funds that invest in lower-risk blue chips that have a history of holding up well in bear markets.

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Steven Goldberg is a Contributing Columnist for Kiplinger.



All contents copyright 2013 The Kiplinger Washington Editors, Inc. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC

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