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Jewish World Review June 28, 2010 / 16 Tamuz 5770 Obama and Dems heading for electoral disaster By Byron York http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | All around, there are Democrats telling us their prospects for November are looking up. Things aren't as bad as Republicans say! Health care is becoming more popular! The country wants financial reform! People still like Barack Obama! Isn't Joe Barton awful! They're fooling themselves. The basic indicators of voters' intentions -- their general mood and attitude toward the policies of Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid -- are clear and solid. Unless those indicators change, and most experts believe that would take a huge, unforeseen event that fundamentally alters the political equation, Democrats are in for serious losses this November. The only question is whether those losses will be big enough for them to lose their huge majorities in the House and Senate. Even if they're not, the party will be badly weakened in the next Congress. The latest evidence is a new survey from pollsters Peter Hart and Bill McInturff for the Wall Street Journal and NBC. The number of people who say the country is headed in the wrong direction is 62 percent -- the highest it has been since the final days of George W. Bush. The troubled economy, of course, is the most important issue, and 66 percent say they expect the economy to stay the same or get worse in the next year. "There is a sense across the board that things aren't working," says Republican pollster David Winston. Obama's approval rating is at 45 percent, versus 48 percent disapproval -- the first time the president has ever been underwater in the Journal poll. (By way of contrast, the president's approval rating was 61 percent in April 2009, his high point in the Journal poll.) People are not happy about the way Obama is handling the economy, with 50 percent disapproving compared to 46 percent approving. He's also being hurt by the Gulf oil spill. Fifty percent in the survey disapprove of his handling of the crisis, compared to 42 percent who approve. That's not much better than George W. Bush's rating for handling the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which was 53 percent disapproval, 36 percent approval six months after the storm and the media's subsequent battering of Bush. A president's personal approval rating is often higher than his job performance rating. With Obama, the two are more or less the same: 47 percent personal approval versus 45 percent job approval -- neither very good. Obama has also taken a fall when it comes to the sometimes hard-to-describe attributes that shape public opinions about leaders. The Journal asked whether people "strongly relate to [Obama] as your president," or whether they related to him somewhat, only a little, or not really at all. The number of people who say they strongly relate to Obama as president has gone from 50 percent on Inauguration Day to 29 percent today, while the number of people who say they don't really relate to him has gone from 8 percent then to 30 percent now. There's clearly a growing alienation with the once enormously popular president. Of course, Obama isn't on the ballot this November. But his ratings contribute to what Winston calls the public's "overall sense of the ability to govern." From that perspective, Obama's troubles are the Democrats' troubles. And Democrats in Congress have plenty of their own. When asked their preference for the outcome of this year's elections, 45 percent of those surveyed say they want Congress to be controlled by Republicans, while 43 percent want Democrats in charge. In April 2009, people wanted a Democratic Congress by a margin of 48 to 39. The pollsters asked whether voters would be more or less enthusiastic about a candidate if they knew he supported a particular position on the issues. The most popular positions were cutting federal spending, reforming Wall Street and repealing the national health care law -- two Republican issues and one Democratic one. By a wide margin, people are more enthusiastic about a candidate who promises to repeal health care than they are about a candidate who is endorsed by Obama. As strong as the numbers look, smart Republicans are constantly telling each other to calm down and keep working. While the public has soured on Obama and the Democratic leadership, Republicans can't just bash the opposition. "The Democrats have really opened the door for Republicans," Winston says, "and the challenge for Republicans is to lay out for people what they'll get if they get a GOP majority." If Republicans can do that, they'll win big in November. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. Comment on Byron York's column by clicking here. Previously: 06/21/10 Who told Obama drilling is ‘absolutely safe’? 06/14/10 Billions for ‘green jobs,’ whatever they are 06/07/10 Sestak a no-go for any job. So what was the deal? 05/31/10 As economic worries worsen, White House puts on the glitz 05/25/10 GOP dilemma: Fight Kagan, or go along? 05/11/10 Enforcing nation's immigration laws would be a bargain 05/03/10 How Obama could lose Arizona immigration battle 04/27/10 What's behind the anti-Tea Party hate narrative? 04/20/10 As government expands, beware the post-office example 04/19/10 Who wins in 2010? Good luck reading tea leaves 04/12/10 GOP Obamacare strategy: Try repeal, then cut 04/05/10 Obamacare was mainly aimed at redistributing wealth 03/30/10 Message to Dems: People still don't like Obamacare 03/23/10 The coming consequences of Obamacare 03/16/10 Marco Rubio and the Republicans who love him 03/15/10 GOP hopes town halls take health care off table 03/08/10 Dems turn risky health vote into manhood contest 03/01/10 Why Obama defies the public on health care 02/22/10 South Carolina mulls 2012: Romney? Palin? Huck? 02/16/10 GOP winning war over Miranda rights for terrorists 02/09/10 Who are the 300 terrorists held in U.S. prisons? 02/02/10 Is Obama dissatisfied with being president? 01/19/10 The Republican dilemma: Good Michael or Bad Michael? 01/12/10 Now the lawmakers are figuring out what they didn't know 01/05/10 GOP deserves blame for Democratic excesses 12/29/09 Dems' dreams of a blue West begin to turn red 12/22/09 Why Dems push health care, even if it kills them 11/30/09 Dems' kamikaze mission: Health care by New Year's 11/23/09 Why it's a mistake to bring Gitmo prisoners here 11/16/09 Dems' slick fix: $210 billion of fiscal restraint 11/10/09 Obama can't be community organizer for the world 11/02/09 At key moment, Obama leaves health post unfilled 10/26/09 ‘Fierce urgency' for jobs, not health care’ 10/12/09 Facts hurt Jennings in youth sex controversy 10/05/09 Amid terror threat, Dems chip away at Patriot Act 09/27/09 In Afghanistan, let U.S. troops be warriors 09/21/09 Under fire, Democrats abandon ACORN in drove 09/14/09 Dems stifle Republican health care plans 09/08/09 For Dems, a serious Charlie Rangel problem 09/07/09 Obama's speech: Wrong setting for a sales job 09/01/09 What happened to the antiwar movement? 08/24/09 Why Dems may jam through health care plan 08/17/09 GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010 08/10/09 The empty words of a journalist turned flack 08/03/09 Probe finds new clues in AmeriCorps IG scandal 07/27/09 Obamacare haunted by unkept promises of stimulus 07/20/09 Why the GOP failed the Sotomayor test 07/13/09 What the GOPers will ask Sotomayor 06/29/09 Serious questions remain for Mark Sanford 06/22/09 How GOPers can crack the AmeriCorps scandal 06/16/09 Worried about Sotomayor? Consider Andre Davis 06/08/09 Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP? 06/01/09 When the Dems derailed a Latino nominee 05/26/09 Why the GOP will defeat Obama on healthcare 05/19/09 Rosy report can't hide stimulus problems 05/12/09 The Reagan legacy is the man himself 05/05/09 Sen. Specter, meet your new friends 04/27/09 Ted Olson: ‘Torture’ probes will never end 04/20/09 Who's Laughing at the ‘Axis of Evil’ today? 04/14/09 Congress needs Google to track stimulus money 04/06/09 Beyond AIG: A bill to let Big Government set your salary 03/30/09 On Spending and the Deficit, McCain Was Right 03/24/09 It's Obama's crisis now 03/17/09: Geithner-Obama economics: A joke that's not funny © 2009, NEA

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