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February 13, 2012
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Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
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Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
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Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
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Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
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Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
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Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
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Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
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Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
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Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
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January 13, 2012
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Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
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Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
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January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
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Jewish World Review
May 21, 2009
/ 27 Iyar 5769
Wither the GOP? Not according critics' own cited polls
By
Jack Kelly
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
The analysis of the most recent Gallup Poll by Managing Editor Jeffrey
M. Jones reads like a requiem for the Republican party.
"GOP losses span nearly all demographic groups," said the headline on
the press release May 18. "Only frequent churchgoers show no decline in
support since 2001."
The analysis will be fodder for those commentators who assert
Republicans must radically alter course or face extinction in the Age of
Obama. But the polling data Gallup released doesn't support Mr. Jones'
conclusions.
According to Gallup, only 32 percent of those polled by Gallup May 7-10
identified themselves as Republicans. But that's the highest percentage
since Aug. 18-20 of 2006, when 33 percent said they were Republicans.
And it's a significant increase in a month. In April 6-9, only 24
percent of respondents called themselves Republicans.
In that same poll, only 32 percent of respondents identified themselves
as Democrats. That's exactly the same as Republicans, and represents a
decline of four percentage points from April 20-21, six since Mar 5-8.
Let's reprise. Exactly the same proportion of the electorate in the
most recent Gallup Poll identify themselves as Republicans as identify
themselves as Democrats. This represents in the space of a month a
significant gain for Republicans, and a significant loss for Democrats.
A plurality of voters 34 percent in the most recent poll identify
themselves as independents. In 2006 and 2008, independents broke
heavily for Democrats. If that is still true, then Mr. Jones' focus the
weakness of the GOP would be correct, despite the positive change for
Republicans in partisan identification.
But according to Gallup, it isn't. Gallup asked the independents which
way they "lean." When leaners are included, 45 percent of those polled
favored the Republicans, 45 percent favored the Democrats. Again, dead
even. The last time that happened was in June of 2005.
What are the political implications of a tie? In the Gallup Poll taken
Nov. 7-10, 2004, all respondents, with leaners, showed 48 percent for
Republicans, 48 percent for Democrats. In that election, President Bush
was re-elected. Republicans gained four seats in the Senate to control
that body, 55-45, and won five additional seats in the House, to control
that body, 232-203.
The decline in support for Democrats among independents is more dramatic
than the change in party identification. When leaners were included in
the poll taken April 20-21, all voters favored the Democrats, 50-39. In
the poll taken around election day in 2008, all those surveyed favored
the Democrats, 51-40.
A shift in public sentiment toward the GOP also has been noted by
Rasmussen Reports. A telephone poll released May 12 indicated 40
percent of respondents would vote for a Republican for Congress, 39
percent for a Democrat. This was the third week in a row in which
Republicans led in the generic Congressional ballot.
A serious person analyzing this data would wonder what it is the
Democrats have done to cause so much erosion in their support in so
short a time, especially among independents. But Mr. Jones writes only
of the GOP's alleged troubles. What we are getting from him is not
analysis, but the most egregious form of spin.
This most recent Gallup Poll isn't the only one being spun. We're told
constantly how popular President Obama is. Yet after 100 days, Mr.
Obama, at 63 percent, trailed Jimmy Carter (69 percent), Dwight
Eisenhower (71 percent) and John Kennedy (74 percent), and was
statistically tied with Richard Nixon (62 percent).
The Democrats' dip in popularity has occurred before anything really bad
has happened that can be attributed to them. The economy stinks, but it
was bad when President Obama took office. Republicans think Mr. Obama's
massive spending will lead to stagflation, or worse, and that his
weakness abroad will lead to foreign policy crises. But neither has
materialized yet. If either does, it will cause a decline in popularity
for Democrats even Jeffrey M. Jones will be compelled to notice.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Comment by clicking here.
JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.
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© 2009, Jack Kelly
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