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Jewish World Review April 28, 2005 / 19 Nisan, 5765 Bush administration has Venezuela in its crosshairs By George Friedman
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
A few weeks ago, I noted in this space that the United States is beginning to shift its focus — away from al-Qaida and away even from the ongoing violence in Iraq, back to pre-9/11 dynamics. This week, we have seen further evidence of this shift with a new response by Washington to an old bete-noir, Hugo Chavez.
Under normal circumstances, it would be easy to dismiss the Venezuelan president's consistent anti-U.S. rhetoric, were it any less voluble or entertaining. For the past three years, since surviving a brief coup, Chavez has been claiming, first, that the United States was set on toppling his regime and, more recently, that U.S. leaders now seek his assassination. Meanwhile, he has been pursuing some fairly provocative leftist policies — especially for the leader of a country the United States relies on as a significant source of oil supplies.
Whatever warmth there may have been in these chilly relations now appears to be dissipating altogether. In recent days, Chavez has scuttled a 35-year-old military exchange program with the United States, claiming that U.S. soldiers were "waging a little campaign" that included bad-mouthing his presidency and otherwise slighting their host country. Meanwhile, he also has charged that several Americans were caught taking pictures of such things as oil refineries and military facilities, saying this shows that Washington is stepping up its intelligence operations against his government.
Washington, which has categorically denied the claims that any Americans were arrested, would be much more likely to task satellites than human spies with such a mission — if there was much value in photographing oil refineries and military bases to begin with, which there isn't. All of which would again make Chavez's statements easy to dismiss — except for an April 26 story in The New York Times.
According to the story, which clearly was intentionally leaked to The Times by the Bush administration, the United States has concluded that there is no way to improve relations with Chavez and that, in short, he must go. Washington is considering a program of destabilizing Venezuela, which could include financing institutions and political groups that oppose Chavez.
Since this has been a basic model for dealing with regimes in Washington's crosshairs for several years, the report can be taken seriously. Moreover, it was timed to coincide with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's departure for a tour through Latin American states, where her agenda included discussions on Venezuela with other regional leaders.
Any attempts to build a campaign against Chavez in Latin America likely will hit a wall, since doing so not only would involve giving governments in that region a reason to care about the Washington-Caracas rift, but reversing a growing trend of anti-American sentiment and leftist economic policies that have been taking root for several years already. Moreover, it is difficult to overlook the fact that Chavez — former coup plotter and radical revolutionary though he may be — was democratically elected by the Venezuelans.
What is by far the most interesting aspect of this growing crisis is that it is occurring to begin with. The threat from Chavez, whatever it is, was always there. What has changed most perceptibly is the American view of the world.
Since the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States has been obsessed with its confrontation with the jihadists. The Bush administration not only had no time for Venezuela before, but the last thing it wanted on its plate was another crisis when it was having trouble dealing with the Muslim world.
Now, the Bush administration clearly feels it has that war under control and is now prepared to embark on other adventures. Just how much risk and how many resources the United States is prepared to put behind a push to oust Chavez is unclear. Some of this could be simply talk, intended to satisfy internal political constituencies in the administration. Nevertheless, that the Bush administration is prepared to confront Chavez now is a measure of its confidence concerning al-Qaida and the major war.
Washington now has bandwidth.
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George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.
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Arnold Ahlert | ||||||||||||
