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Jewish World Review April 7, 2005 / 27 Adar II, 5765 Chavez says Venezuela is in U.S. crosshairs By George Friedman
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Things are getting really interesting in Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez — who believes, or at least says he believes, that the United States is planning an invasion — continues to foment a sense of crisis.
In the latest turn of events, Chavez said on April 3, on his nationally televised weekly program, "Hello President," that he plans to expand the military reserve he created less than a year ago from its current total of 80,000 members to as many as 2.3 million volunteers, or 10 percent of the Venezuelan population. Separately, sources close to the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said that a North Korean delegation quietly visited Caracas last week for meetings with senior government and military officials.
Chavez's stated belief that he is being targeted by the United States is partly political posturing: By generating a sense of crisis, he strengthens his position. But it also is possible that this president, who was elected and then survived a coup, actually believes himself to be in danger. Venezuela is a major supplier of oil to the United States, and its state-owned oil company, PDVSA, owns Citgo.
Chavez knows that the Bush administration dislikes him intensely, but that it does not intend to deal with him while the U.S.-jihadist war continues. Chavez also is aware that the United States is feeling pretty good about the course of this war. He can make a rational case for believing he is next on the agenda. And even if it is not true, he needs to prepare for the worst.
He has sought to create a web of international relationships that would prevent American invasion. But Chavez knows that the best deterrent is creating as powerful a military force as he can muster. The Venezuelan leader already is committed to buying more than $2 billion worth of infantry, naval and air force weapons, radar systems and transports from Brazil, China, Russia and Spain. Arming a military reserve force of 2.3 million members with assault rifles at a price of about $500 per rifle would cost the government approximately $1.15 billion.
Hence, the North Koreans' visit. If Caracas were to buy a few dozen North Korean missiles with a range of a few hundred miles, it might have a valuable deterrent force, capable of striking Colombian or, more important, Panamanian targets. Pyongyang would not sell nuclear weapons to the Chavez government — but it might be willing to sell a few Nodong-1s, which would give the Venezuelan military the ability to launch missiles armed with large conventional explosives warheads at targets deep inside Colombian territory, including Bogota.
The acquisition of North Korean missiles would significantly increase Venezuela's political leverage regionally. During his trip to France, India, Qatar and Uruguay in March, Chavez said — in one of many speeches accusing the U.S. government of aggression — that his enemies would soon be claiming that Chavez is expanding ties with North Korea. In fact, political ties between Caracas and Pyongyang are already being strengthened, and the impetus for closer relations is coming mainly from the Chavez government, a source in the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry reports.
For a force of 2.3 million volunteer reservists, meanwhile, the small arms and other infantry equipment requirements would be immense. Russian arms suppliers would be first in line to sell more weapons to Venezuela, since they already have sold 100,000 AK-103 and AK-104 assault rifles and 40 helicopters to the government. However, Chavez probably will purchase small arms and infantry equipment from South Africa as well in coming months.
A military reserve of 2.3 million members, decently armed but poorly trained — coupled with North Korean rockets — would cause the United States to think twice about invading Venezuela, if in fact Washington is actually thinking about it.
In my view, the United States remains focused on Islamist threats, not on Chavez. But that can change, and Chavez is preparing for the worst. Certainly a deal with North Korea would catapult Venezuela nearly to the top of Bush's list of things to worry about — and the world has learned that being on that list is not a healthy thing.
And thus begin the crises. Chavez is preparing for the worst. The United States will have to assume the worst, and act accordingly.
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George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.
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Arnold Ahlert | ||||||||||||
