Jewish World Review April 20, 2005 / 11 Nisan, 5765

Arnold is a California phenom, not a GOP star

By Robert Robb

http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | At the San Jose airport, there's a black tee shirt for sale, sporting a picture of Arnold Schwarzenegger in shades, over the caption: "The Govenator."

Now, Janet Napolitano is a quite popular governor in these parts. But I don't think there are tee shirts with her mug on them selling at Sky Harbor.

There's obviously more than politics behind the Schwarzenegger phenomenon in California. But when he was first elected a year and a half ago in a tumultuous recall election, some argued that Schwarzenegger also represented a new, winning Republican prototype: fiscally conservative but moderate to progressive on social issues.

I was in California last week to attend a conference on direct democracy at Stanford University. Since initiatives are Schwarzenegger's political weapon of choice, he was much a topic of interest to the assembled academics. I also took advantage of the proximity to discuss the Schwarzenegger phenomenon with veteran California political observer Bill Whalen, formerly a senior official in the Pete Wilson administration and now a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Schwarzenegger has certainly delivered on the fiscal conservatism pledge. He inherited a deep deficit and a large short-term debt. He got voters to approve a longer-term bond to cover the deficit and the debt, and also a measure cutting off such temporizing mechanisms for the future.

Voters were initially skeptical of both propositions, but Schwarzenegger campaigned vigorously for them and both ended up passing comfortably, adding to his political aura.

In addition to proposing tough-minded balanced budgets and declaring tax increases off the table, Schwarzenegger is now supporting an initiative that would allow formula-driven spending to be reduced if there is a revenue shortfall. It's an excellent idea, one Arizona should adopt. But, politically, the bloom is off the Schwarzenegger rose, if that's not too much of a girly-man metaphor for this subject.

The state's 2004 general election was a mixed bag for Schwarzenegger. He largely carried the day on ballot measures, and is thought to have made the difference on a couple of importance to the business community. But he had also fingered a handful of Democratic legislators for termination, complaining about a lack of cooperation on budget matters. All survived.

In fact, of 153 congressional and legislative seats in California, not a single one changed party hands during the 2004 general election. This has lead Schwarzenegger to call for removing redistricting from the legislature and giving it to an independent commission.

In any event, Democrats no longer fear Schwarzenegger. They have stiffed him on the state budget and his most recent reform agenda. They have responded to his threat to take the reform agenda to the voters in a special election this fall with initiative proposals of their own, many aimed at his business backers.

Long-time California political journalist Peter Schrag, a conference attendee, dubbed this a game of initiative "chicken."

There is also a sense that the public may be tiring of Schwarzenegger asking it to do the heavy lifting for state government.

As Whalen points out, only a faction of California's population lives in the capitol city, Sacramento, and most people just aren't used to the governor and the state government being that large a presence in their lives.

Californians have already been through four statewide elections in a year and a half. There doesn't seem to be much appetite for a fifth.

When a Republican politician starts falling in public esteem, it's usually the social right that provides the backstop. So, I asked Whalen whether that presented a problem for the socially progressive — pro-choice, not opposed to gay marriage — Schwarzenegger.

Whalen didn't see a problem for Schwarzenegger on the right. For one thing, he's acquiring all the right political opponents — Democratic politicians, liberal activists and public employee unions.

His fiscal conservative and pro-business credentials are impeccable. And he cheered the populist talk radio crowd by repealing legislation that allowed illegal immigrants to obtain driver licenses.

With respect to social conservatives specifically, Whalen said that they were content that Schwarzenegger respected them and didn't go out of his way to alienate them.

That may reflect California political reality, in which Democrats outnumber Republicans by nine percentage points, and Schwarzenegger's combination of fiscal conservatism and social progressivism is a pretty strong strand among Republicans.

But elsewhere, social conservatism is a more powerful force within the Republican Party and social conservatives want more from their politicians than simply respect. Even Schwarzenegger might have had trouble initially winning a Republican primary in California, rather than the short-fused, first-past-the-post recall election.

There is much to admire in Schwarzenegger's willful drive to impose fiscal sanity in California. But the best bet is that he's a California phenomenon, a product of some unique political circumstances and a larger-than-life personality, not a new national prototype for Republicans.