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Jewish World Review April 20, 2005 / 11 Nisan, 5765 Arnold is a California phenom, not a GOP star By Robert Robb
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
At the San Jose airport, there's a black tee shirt for sale, sporting a
picture of Arnold Schwarzenegger in shades, over the caption: "The
Govenator."
Now, Janet Napolitano is a quite popular governor in these parts. But I
don't think there are tee shirts with her mug on them selling at Sky Harbor.
There's obviously more than politics behind the Schwarzenegger phenomenon
in California. But when he was first elected a year and a half ago in a
tumultuous recall election, some argued that Schwarzenegger also
represented a new, winning Republican prototype: fiscally conservative but
moderate to progressive on social issues.
I was in California last week to attend a conference on direct democracy at
Stanford University. Since initiatives are Schwarzenegger's political
weapon of choice, he was much a topic of interest to the assembled
academics. I also took advantage of the proximity to discuss the
Schwarzenegger phenomenon with veteran California political observer Bill
Whalen, formerly a senior official in the Pete Wilson administration and
now a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Schwarzenegger has certainly delivered on the fiscal conservatism pledge.
He inherited a deep deficit and a large short-term debt. He got voters to
approve a longer-term bond to cover the deficit and the debt, and also a
measure cutting off such temporizing mechanisms for the future.
Voters were initially skeptical of both propositions, but Schwarzenegger
campaigned vigorously for them and both ended up passing comfortably,
adding to his political aura.
In addition to proposing tough-minded balanced budgets and declaring tax
increases off the table, Schwarzenegger is now supporting an initiative
that would allow formula-driven spending to be reduced if there is a
revenue shortfall. It's an excellent idea, one Arizona should adopt.
But, politically, the bloom is off the Schwarzenegger rose, if that's not
too much of a girly-man metaphor for this subject.
The state's 2004 general election was a mixed bag for Schwarzenegger. He
largely carried the day on ballot measures, and is thought to have made the
difference on a couple of importance to the business community.
But he had also fingered a handful of Democratic legislators for
termination, complaining about a lack of cooperation on budget matters. All
survived.
In fact, of 153 congressional and legislative seats in California, not a
single one changed party hands during the 2004 general election. This has
lead Schwarzenegger to call for removing redistricting from the legislature
and giving it to an independent commission.
In any event, Democrats no longer fear Schwarzenegger. They have stiffed
him on the state budget and his most recent reform agenda. They have
responded to his threat to take the reform agenda to the voters in a
special election this fall with initiative proposals of their own, many
aimed at his business backers.
Long-time California political journalist Peter Schrag, a conference
attendee, dubbed this a game of initiative "chicken."
There is also a sense that the public may be tiring of Schwarzenegger
asking it to do the heavy lifting for state government.
As Whalen points out, only a faction of California's population lives in
the capitol city, Sacramento, and most people just aren't used to the
governor and the state government being that large a presence in their
lives.
Californians have already been through four statewide elections in a year
and a half. There doesn't seem to be much appetite for a fifth.
When a Republican politician starts falling in public esteem, it's usually
the social right that provides the backstop. So, I asked Whalen whether
that presented a problem for the socially progressive — pro-choice, not
opposed to gay marriage — Schwarzenegger.
Whalen didn't see a problem for Schwarzenegger on the right. For one thing,
he's acquiring all the right political opponents — Democratic politicians,
liberal activists and public employee unions.
His fiscal conservative and pro-business credentials are impeccable. And he
cheered the populist talk radio crowd by repealing legislation that allowed
illegal immigrants to obtain driver licenses.
With respect to social conservatives specifically, Whalen said that they
were content that Schwarzenegger respected them and didn't go out of his
way to alienate them.
That may reflect California political reality, in which Democrats outnumber
Republicans by nine percentage points, and Schwarzenegger's combination of
fiscal conservatism and social progressivism is a pretty strong strand
among Republicans.
But elsewhere, social conservatism is a more powerful force within the
Republican Party and social conservatives want more from their politicians
than simply respect. Even Schwarzenegger might have had trouble initially
winning a Republican primary in California, rather than the short-fused,
first-past-the-post recall election.
There is much to admire in Schwarzenegger's willful drive to impose fiscal
sanity in California. But the best bet is that he's a California
phenomenon, a product of some unique political circumstances and a
larger-than-life personality, not a new national prototype for Republicans.
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JWR contributor Robert Robb is a columnist for The Arizona Republic. Comment by clicking here.
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