Jewish World Review April 13, 2005 / 4 Nisan, 5765

Can Canada solve the world's energy woes?

By Jack Kelly

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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | A Canadian political mega-scandal could — one way or the other — help solve our energy woes.

Gasoline prices have moderated in recent days, but soon will resume climbing toward $3 a gallon, because world oil production is stabilizing while demand — especially from China — is soaring.

The world's largest oil reserves are in Saudi Arabia. The next largest are in the Canadian province of Alberta.

Four political parties are represented in the Canadian parliament. Three — the Liberals, the New Democrats, and the Bloc Quebecois — are left, or further left. The Liberals, who have 135 of the 308 seats in parliament, currently govern in coalition with the New Democrats, who have 19. That's about to change.

Judge John Gomery is investigating massive corruption in the Liberal Party. According to testimony, the Liberals paid millions of taxpayer dollars to advertising agencies in Montreal for little or no work, in exchange for kickbacks to party leaders and contributions to party coffers.

Gomery had placed a ban on reporting the testimony, but was forced to lift it when American web logger Ed Morrissey published details on his web site, Captain's Quarters. The news has enraged Canadians. Opinion polls indicate support for the Liberals, who have governed Canada since 1993, is plummeting.

Although "Adscam" is far and away the biggest problem the Liberals have, it isn't the only one. The government acknowledged April 8th the cost of implementing the Kyoto treaty on global warming will be at least $10 billion, twice what has been budgeted. Half of Canadians strongly oppose a government plan to legalize gay marriage.

If the Liberals lose a no confidence vote in parliament, a new election will be forced. Most Canadian observers think a no confidence vote will pass by June at the latest.

The Tories currently hold 99 seats. They'd need to gain 56 to govern by themselves. A recent Ipsos-Reid poll indicates this is in reach. It shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals nationwide, 30 to 27 percent. But the Tories tend to do better in pre-election polls than at the ballot box.

The BQ holds 54 of Quebec's 75 seats, with the Liberals holding the remaining 21. The BQ is certain to gain 5-6 more seats, and could gain 10-12 more. This would revive a secessionist movement that has been dormant.

If the Tories don't win outright, it would be fascinating to see them try to form a coalition government, since the other three parties have much more in common, ideologically, with each other than they do with the Conservatives. Canada could be on the verge of becoming ungovernable.

In order to appease the separatists in Quebec, Canada's liberal establishment has in effect conceded that a bare majority vote in a referendum in the province would be enough for secession.

But the real fish out of water in Canada isn't Quebec. Alberta is Texas with snow. It's the only province where the Tories have more than 40 percent support (54 percent in the Ipsos-Reid poll), and Conservatives already hold 26 of the province's 28 seats in Parliament.

Canada has been described as a beast which grazes in the West and is milked in the East. Alberta has been taxed to the max to provide benefits for Quebec and the Maritime provinces. Meanwhile, the steps the federal government has taken to comply with the Kyoto treaty affect Albertans more adversely than they do other Canadians.

A Tory majority government would be good for us. We could expect much more cooperation on border security, missile defense, and energy policy.

A new election could also revive Quebec nationalism, which wouldn't be so bad for us if the Conservatives, despite being the prime beneficiaries of what appears to be the biggest scandal in Canadian political history, are still unable to win an outright majority.

Two can play the secession game. If Quebec can secede from the Canadian federation by a simple majority vote, so could Alberta. Albertans might well choose to leave a crumbling nation where they are made fun of for the greatest nation on earth, where they would be welcomed.

In the not too distant future we may have on our northern border a series of Canuckistans, and our 51st state.