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Jewish World Review March 31, 2005 / 20 Adar II, 5765 Pre-9/11 priorities re-emerge, as U.S. focuses on China, Russia By George Friedman
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
In geopolitics, we believe in the law of interconnections. Even political events that appear random or mysterious never occur in a vacuum, but as a result of identifiable circumstances and as responses to current and future problems. Nowhere will this principle be more evident in coming weeks than in Russia, Iraq and China.
Obviously, all of these are areas that concern the United States, but I now view Russia and China as growing in importance and possibly soon taking precedence over Iraq, in something resembling a return to Washington's pre-9/11 priorities.
In Iraq, a period of relative stabilization has begun, with emphasis on the word "relative." The region certainly cannot be called peaceful or calm, but it is clear that Iraq is now passing beyond the crisis state that has commanded Washington's attention for the past two years.
There are several reasons for this. First, the Sunni insurrection has failed to spread beyond the four Sunni provinces, and even there the tempo of operations has declined drastically in recent weeks. That is not to say that it could not flare up again, but we are now in a waiting period to see whether the guerrillas have been militarily damaged or have merely embarked on a routine, phased reduction in operations in order to rest, train and recuperate. This state of affairs likely will continue until summer.
Second, it is clear that a new, Shiite-dominated and Iranian-influenced government will take control of Iraq in the near future, and that Sunnis will be excluded from the power structure. For Sunni regimes elsewhere — and particularly in Riyadh — this could create a nightmare scenario in which Iran has an unimpeded path to lay claim first to Iraq's oil fields and possibly Saudi Arabia's as well.
The strategic solutions are either to invite Western troops back into the kingdom to help guard the oil — a nonstarter for Riyadh — or to lean on Iraq's Sunni insurrectionists to reach some sort of accommodation with the Shia. The Saudis have chosen the latter course.
Now there certainly are other potential hotspots in the Middle East, such as Syria and Lebanon, but the United States appears to be applying sufficient pressure at the moment to avoid a security crisis.
Leaders in Russia and China can see this state of affairs — and even if they didn't, President Bush's State of the Union address clearly outlined his second administration's foreign policy priorities, with an emphasis on democratization that puts both squarely in the crosshairs. Both of these states also harbor longstanding concerns and suspicions about U.S. behavior — concerns that have not been soothed by recent events in the region.
For its part, Russia has viewed U.S. meddling in Ukraine's politics as a betrayal of fundamental security guarantees that have been in place since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and of course Moscow has long believed that Washington tacitly supports the Chechen separatist movement. The recent upheaval in Kyrgyzstan — even if it was internally ignited and self-perpetuating, as I believe — can only add to these suspicions. In short, Moscow views Washington as perpetrating a systematic assault on Russia's fundamental national interests.
Meanwhile, we also are seeing a loss of power by President Vladimir Putin and the reformists that is increasing political pressure on Putin internally and heightening tensions with the United States — as witnessed by the disastrous Bush-Putin summit in Bratislava. Moscow has signaled its ability to create serious problems for the United States, but it is not yet clear whether Washington hears the Russian threat.
China's internal dilemmas have been well documented in this space; suffice to say, I believe the Chinese economic meltdown is already under way. Beijing has sent several clear signals — shuffling around the heads of major banks, for example — that financial pressures are growing. China is now playing one of its last big cards: the call to patriotism.
This emerged with the recent anti-secession law targeting Taiwan, but even more recent events — including regime change in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, a new U.S.-Indonesian military cooperation agreement and even actor Richard Gere's promotional visit to Tokyo (where he literally tangoed with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi while plugging his film "Shall We Dance?") — will only add to China's sense of embattlement. (Gere, of course, is a Buddhist and outspoken critic of China's claims to Tibet, and Japan is a historical rival.)
Logic, therefore, dictates that the most sensible move would be for China and Russia to form an alliance — one that would relieve pressure on these two poles by stirring up trouble for the United States in sensitive areas of the Middle East. At this point, it remains to be seen whether capabilities will align with logic.
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George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.
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Mitch Albom | ||||||||||||
