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April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review March 16, 2005 / 5 Adar II 5765

Triumphs must not give us false sense of security

By George Friedman


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | There has been a lot of talk lately about how events in the Middle East have vindicated President George W. Bush's policies — on Iraq, Syria, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and other issues. Given the extreme nature of the criticisms, particularly concerning Iraq, it would be hard not to be vindicated. Yet that is far from saying that we should not be prepared for more trouble ahead, however positive the trend line is for the United States at the moment.

Let's begin with Iraq. I supported the invasion of Iraq because I thought it would set off a chain of events in the Middle East that ultimately would undermine both al-Qaida and regimes that had enabled it. I saw Iraq not as a stand-alone campaign, but as an integral part of the U.S. war against the jihadists. I still believe that.

While many aspects of the Iraq war have been abysmally handled, from using a false justification for the invasion — WMD — to Washington's failure to create an Army large enough to cope with the war and subsequent occupation, these failures have not undermined the overall effectiveness of the campaign.

Furthermore, military and political errors are endemic to war: Had CNN been present at Omaha Beach, Eisenhower would have been court-martialed.

As the situation now stands, the Iraqi insurrection remains generally confined to the four main Sunni provinces, and attacks against American forces and the general tempo of operations have declined, contributing to the sense that the United States is gaining further traction in the region. But there is an unanswered question: Does the fall-off stem from declining support for the insurgency among the Sunni leadership or, as in the past, have the guerrillas simply slowed their operational tempo to regroup, recruit, train and recover? This is standard for any military force after an offensive.

We do not know at this point whether the guerrillas have been hurt militarily or whether this is a phased reduction in operations. There is evidence — including the capture of a number of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's key aides — that they have been hurt and constrained, but that is not yet certain. We won't really know until June or so, judging from past cycles of insurgent attacks. We also don't know the fighting capabilities of the Shiite forces or the will of the new government to commit these forces to the fight.

In Lebanon, we have seen a favorable evolution, with Syria pledging to withdraw its occupation forces. However, if this evolution continues, Hezbollah — a well-trained, well-armed and highly motivated force — faces extinction from the loss of its safe haven. Serious economic interests on the part of the Assad regime also face elimination. There appears to be a presumption that both Hezbollah and Damascus will not attempt to reverse these potential developments. This is obviously an enormous assumption, and in the case of Hezbollah, which has called out pro-Syrian demonstrators numbering in the hundreds of thousands — a highly questionable one. Hezbollah has absolutely everything to lose

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In the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the situation is more positive than at any time since the Oslo Accords. But it might be worth remembering that the Oslo Accords led to catastrophic results, so that particular comparison might not be the most useful. Critical issues have not yet been addressed.

For example, it is not clear that Hamas has accepted the principle of Israel's right to exist, or whether the group is simply too weak to challenge the peace process at the moment. It also is not apparent whether anyone has thought clearly about Jerusalem. A settlement based on Palestinian weakness will work only if weakness leads to pliability, or if the weakness cannot be reversed.

Finally, al-Qaida appears to have been broken. The organization is certainly not clearly operational anywhere — but betting against it is always dangerous.

The United States has done quite well since Sept. 11 in transforming the politico-military landscape of the Middle East, and the trend lines are running in Washington's favor. Nevertheless, a war isn't over till it's over. In war, more than anywhere else, Murphy's Law prevails.

Even if all goes well, there may be a Battle of the Bulge out there — some event that won't change the ultimate outcome, but certainly would come as a nasty surprise.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in Washington and the media consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

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Friedman identifies the United States' most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of September 11 and the Bush administration's motivation for the war in Iraq. Here in eye-opening detail is an insightful picture of today's world that goes far beyond what is reported in the news media. Sales help fund JWR.


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George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.


03/03/05: U.S. overconfidence jeopardizes our ties to Russia
02/28/05: The ethics of torture: Real life is lived on the slippery slope
02/17/05: Hezbollah: The terrorist threat on the horizon
02/07/05: Why are the Chinese moving their money out of China?
02/03/05: Next Pope could, and maybe should, be a Third-Worlder
01/27/05: Decision-day in Iran: Is it for or against United States?
01/14/05: Russia's missile sale to Syria gets back at U.S. over Ukraine
01/06/05: Tsunami realities: Most in need are least likely to get help


© 2005 TMS