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Jewish World Review March 16, 2005 / 5 Adar II 5765 Triumphs must not give us false sense of security By George Friedman
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
There has been a lot of talk lately about how events in the Middle East have vindicated President George W. Bush's policies — on Iraq, Syria, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and other issues. Given the extreme nature of the criticisms, particularly concerning Iraq, it would be hard not to be vindicated. Yet that is far from saying that we should not be prepared for more trouble ahead, however positive the trend line is for the United States at the moment.
Let's begin with Iraq. I supported the invasion of Iraq because I thought it would set off a chain of events in the Middle East that ultimately would undermine both al-Qaida and regimes that had enabled it. I saw Iraq not as a stand-alone campaign, but as an integral part of the U.S. war against the jihadists. I still believe that.
While many aspects of the Iraq war have been abysmally handled, from using a false justification for the invasion — WMD — to Washington's failure to create an Army large enough to cope with the war and subsequent occupation, these failures have not undermined the overall effectiveness of the campaign.
Furthermore, military and political errors are endemic to war: Had CNN been present at Omaha Beach, Eisenhower would have been court-martialed.
As the situation now stands, the Iraqi insurrection remains generally confined to the four main Sunni provinces, and attacks against American forces and the general tempo of operations have declined, contributing to the sense that the United States is gaining further traction in the region. But there is an unanswered question: Does the fall-off stem from declining support for the insurgency among the Sunni leadership or, as in the past, have the guerrillas simply slowed their operational tempo to regroup, recruit, train and recover? This is standard for any military force after an offensive.
We do not know at this point whether the guerrillas have been hurt militarily or whether this is a phased reduction in operations. There is evidence — including the capture of a number of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's key aides — that they have been hurt and constrained, but that is not yet certain. We won't really know until June or so, judging from past cycles of insurgent attacks. We also don't know the fighting capabilities of the Shiite forces or the will of the new government to commit these forces to the fight.
In Lebanon, we have seen a favorable evolution, with Syria pledging to withdraw its occupation forces. However, if this evolution continues, Hezbollah — a well-trained, well-armed and highly motivated force — faces extinction from the loss of its safe haven. Serious economic interests on the part of the Assad regime also face elimination. There appears to be a presumption that both Hezbollah and Damascus will not attempt to reverse these potential developments. This is obviously an enormous assumption, and in the case of Hezbollah, which has called out pro-Syrian demonstrators numbering in the hundreds of thousands — a highly questionable one. Hezbollah has absolutely everything to lose
In the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the situation is more positive than at any time since the Oslo Accords. But it might be worth remembering that the Oslo Accords led to catastrophic results, so that particular comparison might not be the most useful. Critical issues have not yet been addressed.
For example, it is not clear that Hamas has accepted the principle of Israel's right to exist, or whether the group is simply too weak to challenge the peace process at the moment. It also is not apparent whether anyone has thought clearly about Jerusalem. A settlement based on Palestinian weakness will work only if weakness leads to pliability, or if the weakness cannot be reversed.
Finally, al-Qaida appears to have been broken. The organization is certainly not clearly operational anywhere — but betting against it is always dangerous.
The United States has done quite well since Sept. 11 in transforming the politico-military landscape of the Middle East, and the trend lines are running in Washington's favor. Nevertheless, a war isn't over till it's over. In war, more than anywhere else, Murphy's Law prevails.
Even if all goes well, there may be a Battle of the Bulge out there — some event that won't change the ultimate outcome, but certainly would come as a nasty surprise.
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George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.
© 2005 TMS
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