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February 13, 2012
Binyamin Rose: Back to the Bunker: How a life-risking act by a Christian family during the Holocaust saved a family and built a thriving community a world away
Menachem Wecker: Business Schools Teach Real Estate Despite Troubled Housing Market
February 10, 2012
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
February 9, 2012
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
February 8, 2012
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
February 6, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
February 3, 2012
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
February 1, 2012
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
January 31, 2012
January 30, 2012
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
January 27, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
January 26, 2012
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
January 19, 2012
January 18, 2012
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
January 13, 2012
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
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Jewish World Review
March 16, 2005
/ 5 Adar II 5765
Triumphs must not give us false sense of security
By
George Friedman
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
There has been a lot of talk lately about how events in the Middle East have vindicated President George W. Bush's policies — on Iraq, Syria, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and other issues. Given the extreme nature of the criticisms, particularly concerning Iraq, it would be hard not to be vindicated. Yet that is far from saying that we should not be prepared for more trouble ahead, however positive the trend line is for the United States at the moment.
Let's begin with Iraq. I supported the invasion of Iraq because I thought it would set off a chain of events in the Middle East that ultimately would undermine both al-Qaida and regimes that had enabled it. I saw Iraq not as a stand-alone campaign, but as an integral part of the U.S. war against the jihadists. I still believe that.
While many aspects of the Iraq war have been abysmally handled, from using a false justification for the invasion — WMD — to Washington's failure to create an Army large enough to cope with the war and subsequent occupation, these failures have not undermined the overall effectiveness of the campaign.
Furthermore, military and political errors are endemic to war: Had CNN been present at Omaha Beach, Eisenhower would have been court-martialed.
As the situation now stands, the Iraqi insurrection remains generally confined to the four main Sunni provinces, and attacks against American forces and the general tempo of operations have declined, contributing to the sense that the United States is gaining further traction in the region. But there is an unanswered question: Does the fall-off stem from declining support for the insurgency among the Sunni leadership or, as in the past, have the guerrillas simply slowed their operational tempo to regroup, recruit, train and recover? This is standard for any military force after an offensive.
We do not know at this point whether the guerrillas have been hurt militarily or whether this is a phased reduction in operations. There is evidence — including the capture of a number of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's key aides — that they have been hurt and constrained, but that is not yet certain. We won't really know until June or so, judging from past cycles of insurgent attacks. We also don't know the fighting capabilities of the Shiite forces or the will of the new government to commit these forces to the fight.
In Lebanon, we have seen a favorable evolution, with Syria pledging to withdraw its occupation forces. However, if this evolution continues, Hezbollah — a well-trained, well-armed and highly motivated force — faces extinction from the loss of its safe haven. Serious economic interests on the part of the Assad regime also face elimination. There appears to be a presumption that both Hezbollah and Damascus will not attempt to reverse these potential developments. This is obviously an enormous assumption, and in the case of Hezbollah, which has called out pro-Syrian demonstrators numbering in the hundreds of thousands — a highly questionable one. Hezbollah has absolutely everything to lose
In the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the situation is more positive than at any time since the Oslo Accords. But it might be worth remembering that the Oslo Accords led to catastrophic results, so that particular comparison might not be the most useful. Critical issues have not yet been addressed.
For example, it is not clear that Hamas has accepted the principle of Israel's right to exist, or whether the group is simply too weak to challenge the peace process at the moment. It also is not apparent whether anyone has thought clearly about Jerusalem. A settlement based on Palestinian weakness will work only if weakness leads to pliability, or if the weakness cannot be reversed.
Finally, al-Qaida appears to have been broken. The organization is certainly not clearly operational anywhere — but betting against it is always dangerous.
The United States has done quite well since Sept. 11 in transforming the politico-military landscape of the Middle East, and the trend lines are running in Washington's favor. Nevertheless, a war isn't over till it's over. In war, more than anywhere else, Murphy's Law prevails.
Even if all goes well, there may be a Battle of the Bulge out there — some event that won't change the ultimate outcome, but certainly would come as a nasty surprise.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in Washington and the media consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
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"America's Secret War."
Friedman identifies the United States' most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of September 11 and the Bush administration's motivation for the war in Iraq. Here in eye-opening detail is an insightful picture of today's world that goes far beyond what is reported in the news media. Sales help fund JWR.
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Comment by clicking here.
George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.
03/03/05: U.S. overconfidence jeopardizes our ties to Russia
02/28/05: The ethics of torture: Real life is lived on the slippery slope
02/17/05: Hezbollah: The terrorist threat on the horizon
02/07/05: Why are the Chinese moving their money out of China?
02/03/05: Next Pope could, and maybe should, be a Third-Worlder
01/27/05: Decision-day in Iran: Is it for or against United States?
01/14/05: Russia's missile sale to Syria gets back at U.S. over Ukraine
01/06/05: Tsunami realities: Most in need are least likely to get help
© 2005 TMS
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