 |
|
February 10, 2012
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
February 9, 2012
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
February 8, 2012
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
February 6, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
February 3, 2012
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
February 1, 2012
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
January 31, 2012
January 30, 2012
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
January 27, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
January 26, 2012
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
January 19, 2012
January 18, 2012
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
January 13, 2012
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
|
| |
Jewish World Review
March 3, 2005
/ 22 Adar I, 5765
U.S. overconfidence jeopardizes our ties to Russia
By
George Friedman
| 
|
|
|
|
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
As the world focuses on events in the Middle East — where the fall of Lebanon's government and other events are giving the United States a growing sense of strength and confidence — there is a deeper issue developing half a globe away, in Russia.
Despite longstanding problems in Iraq, the United States appears to have stabilized, if not solved, the situation in the four Sunni provinces. And as the Iraqi situation moves from worse to bad to not that bad, it is sparking political re-evaluations in capital cities throughout the region — from Beirut and Damascus to Riyadh and Teheran. Certainly Syria's cooperation in delivering Saddam Hussein's half-brother to the Americans was not based on a belief that the United States was on the run.
These events have also had a vast impact back home. In its usual manic-depressive way, Washington has swung from depression about Iraq to near-exuberance — the Democrats, of course, excluded from the festivities. There is a great deal of reason to be optimistic since the elections in Iraq and the Palestinian territories, but the mood swing is still a bit extreme.
This exuberance, in fact, has had its most intense — and perhaps most unsettling — effect not in the Middle East but in Russia.
The Bush-Putin summit went badly, if not disastrously. The Bush administration's sense that it is getting a grip on the situation in the Middle East propelled the president to Bratislava intending to lecture Vladimir Putin on democracy, free markets and so on. In the past, the Russians have taken such beatings stoically, hoping to please the West and keep the economic pipeline flowing. This time, Bush got the back of Putin's hand.
Two things have happened to transform Putin's view. The first was Ukraine: Officials in Moscow were hoping that their allies in Ukraine would steal the election there last year. They didn't. But fair election or not, Moscow sees what happened in Ukraine as a direct threat to the survival of Russia as a united country.
Ukraine is the southern border of Belarus and Russia. It creates a narrow, 300-mile border between Russia and the Caucasus. To cast that as an American analogy, Ukraine is both Mexico and Canada combined. Russia becomes indefensible without Ukraine.
The Russians believe that the United States initially promised that NATO would not expand into the former Soviet Empire — or if it did, never into the former Soviet states and certainly never into Ukraine. The election of a pro-Western government there raises the very real specter of NATO crouching beneath Russia's soft underbelly. The Russians fear that NATO, or at least some Western forces, will eventually invade their territory if this happens.
The second thing that shifted Putin's viewpoint was the Russian version of Social Security reform. The Kremlin's strategy was to monetize Russian pensions: Instead of getting apartments, for example, retirees would receive money with which to rent apartments. Unfortunately, the payouts would cover only a fraction of actual rental costs.
The domestic situation blew up, and mass demonstrations forced Putin to back down. But the situation really represented a clash between the new Russia of great wealth, concentrated in the hands of a few oligarchs living in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the old Russia (literally) of impoverished elderly and rural dwellers, who were being backed into a corner.
From the standpoint of many Russians, if political and economic reform means abandoning basic national security interests and creating social chaos, they can do without it. Putin, who straddles the various camps, cannot afford to appear to be pushed around by Bush. The more Bush pushes, the more vigorously Putin must hit back.
And he has. Within 48 hours of the Bratislava summit's close, Russia announced the sale of nuclear technology to Iran — the last thing Washington wanted to see. Putin also has toyed with the idea of selling anti-missile systems to Iran and maritime bombers to China.
Putin is trying to show the Americans that he has very real options. The Russian defense industry is still outstanding; rumors of the collapse of the state's research complex are very much overstated. By offering weapons to Iran, Syria and China, Putin was showing that he can hurt the United States quite badly — and that he will.
Russia is certainly not developing internally as the United States would hope. But Washington does not have much leverage in the situation: U.S. economic assistance is trivial, and most of it has benefited a very small slice of Russian society. The Russians, Putin included, believe that Washington wants to finish off Russia as a nation-state, and that all the talk about democracy is simply a cover for strangulation.
I'm not sure that the Russians are wrong, but I am pretty sure they won't go quietly into that good night. The manic side of Washington's foreign policy is not what U.S.-Russian relations need right now — especially considering that, like it or not, the United States needs Russian cooperation.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in Washington and the media consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
FRIEDMAN'S LATEST
"America's Secret War."
Friedman identifies the United States' most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of September 11 and the Bush administration's motivation for the war in Iraq. Here in eye-opening detail is an insightful picture of today's world that goes far beyond what is reported in the news media. Sales help fund JWR.
|
Comment by clicking here.
George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.
02/28/05: The ethics of torture: Real life is lived on the slippery slope
02/17/05: Hezbollah: The terrorist threat on the horizon
02/07/05: Why are the Chinese moving their money out of China?
02/03/05: Next Pope could, and maybe should, be a Third-Worlder
01/27/05: Decision-day in Iran: Is it for or against United States?
01/14/05: Russia's missile sale to Syria gets back at U.S. over Ukraine
01/06/05: Tsunami realities: Most in need are least likely to get help
© 2005 TMS
|
