In this issue

Jonathan Tobin: Defending the Right to a Jewish State

Heather Hale: Compliment your kids without giving them big heads

Megan Shauri: 10 ways you are ruining your own happiness

Carolyn Bigda: 8 Best Dividend Stocks for 2015

Kiplinger's Personal Finance editors: 7 Things You Didn't Know About Paying Off Student Loans

Samantha Olson: The Crucial Mistake 55% Of Parents Are Making At Their Baby's Bedtime

Densie Well, Ph.D., R.D. Open your eyes to yellow vegetables

The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Feb 27, 2014 / 27 Adar I, 5774

Is our economic bust out of Obama's control? Examining the historical evidence

By Jack Kelly

JewishWorldReview.com | His research from 1789 on indicates capitalist economies go through a cycle of boom and bust roughly every 50 to 60 years, Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff wrote in 1925.

Each cycle has four distinct phases, which he named after the seasons of the year. Within each "season," there is a rising phase and a declining phase.

  • In Spring, sparked by innovation, the economy booms. Savings rates are high, interest rates are low. Wealth and prices rise rapidly.

  • The economy's growing in Summer, but not fast enough to satisfy appetites whetted by the rapid rise in prosperity in Spring. Interest rates and inflation are high. Political and economic crises erupt.

  • In Autumn, the economy is running out of gas. Savings rates decline precipitously. Debt explodes, credit bubbles form as people, businesses and governments borrow to maintain the level of consumption to which they've become accustomed.

  • When debt rises to unsustainable levels, Winter begins. Credit bubbles pop, markets crash, businesses go under. Depression lasts until wages and prices have fallen far enough to permit the next Spring to emerge.

    Winter had begun, Kondratieff wrote in 1926. The next depression would begin around 1930, he estimated.

    Kondratieff's theory was unpopular on Wall Street and in Washington, where people didn't want to hear that the "Roaring Twenties" were about to come to a screeching halt. His theory was even more unpopular with Stalin, who didn't want to hear that capitalism is self renewing. He sent Kondratieff to the gulag, where he was executed by a firing squad.

    The "Kondratieff Wave," K-Wave, for short, was given its name by Joseph Schumpeter, arguably the greatest economist of the 20th Century, who based his work on business cycles on it.

    Kondratieff hadn't been the first to identify the "long wave."

    The ancient Mayans in MesoAmerica posited a 52 year cycle of catastrophe and renewal, at the end of which they put out all the fires in their households, threw away all their clay utensils. The 52 year cycle was part a 5,200 year cycle, which ended Dec. 21, 2012, prompting speculation the world would end then.

    Two Dutch economists wrote about economic waves a decade before Kondratieff did -- but their work wasn't translated into other languages until recently. Kondratieff's book, "The Major Economic Cycles," was translated into German shortly after publication in the Soviet Union.

    But Kondratieff's research was by far the most thorough. Building on it, Indiana University professor William Thompson found evidence of long wave cycles repeating every 50 years or so going back 1,000 years.

    Kondratieff offered no opinion about why the long waves he'd identified existed, but said they are "a very important and essential factor in economic development, a factor the effects of which can be found in all the principal fields of social and economic life."

    The "seasons" within a K-Wave each last for roughly the same amount of time, but the length and strength of each vary somewhat, depending on how people behave.

    The last Kondratieff "Spring" began around 1950. "Winter" started around 2000. Earlier K-Wave "Winters" (since 1789) have lasted from 9 to 20 years.

    "Winter" ends in depression, but in the initial "rising" phase economic growth slows, then stops; corruption soars; smaller bubbles -- like say the Dot.com bubble (2000) and the subprime mortgage bubble (2008) -- burst which weaken, but do not trash the entire economy.

    War often accompanies depression in the final phase of "Winter," Kondratieff noted, so President Obama's plans to cut the Army to a size smaller than it's been since before World War II (which took place during the final phase of the last K-Wave "Winter") may be imprudent.

    "The global economy is likely to reach the lowest point at the end of the declining phase of the fifth K-cycle, in 2012-2015," wrote Russian economists Alexander Alvazov and Andrey Kobyakov in 2008.

    "In all probability we will be moving from a "recession" to a "depression" phase in the cycle about the year 2013 and it should last until approximately 2017-2020," predicted Irish investment adviser Christopher Quigley in February, 2012.

    The big takeaway for me from the Kondratieff Wave is the booms can be bigger and last longer, the busts smaller and shorter (or vice versa), depending on the choices we make.

    But the boom and bust cycle itself is an immutable part of nature.


    Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

    JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.

    © 2014, Jack Kelly