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December 2, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Defending the Right to a Jewish State

Heather Hale: Compliment your kids without giving them big heads

Megan Shauri: 10 ways you are ruining your own happiness

Carolyn Bigda: 8 Best Dividend Stocks for 2015

Kiplinger's Personal Finance editors: 7 Things You Didn't Know About Paying Off Student Loans

Samantha Olson: The Crucial Mistake 55% Of Parents Are Making At Their Baby's Bedtime

Densie Well, Ph.D., R.D. Open your eyes to yellow vegetables

The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review

The Biggest Threat to Your Portfolio (It's Not What You Think)

By Morgan Housel


Financial Risk from Bigstock




Reconsidering risk


JewishWorldReview.com | BlackRock CEO Larry Fink once told a story about having dinner with the manager of one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds. The fund's objectives, the manager said, were generational. "So how do you measure performance?" Fink asked.

"Quarterly," said the manager.

Why a fund with a time horizon measured in decades, if not centuries, would care about month-to-month performance is an example of what Fink called "a dangerous preoccupation with the short term." Individual investors fall for the same trap, and it skews their perception of risk.



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What is risk? Nearly every textbook and investment theory equates risk with market volatility. If a stock goes up or down more than the rest of the market, it's said to be riskier. If the stock market has a down year, people start talking about the risks of owning stocks.

But this is a weird way to think about risk, especially if you're a long-term investor. Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's vice chairman, describes risk like this: "Using volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is (1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or (2) the risk of inadequate return."

Risk, in other words, isn't when stocks go up and down. That's just something stocks do. Risk is when an investment goes down and can reasonably be expected to stay down forever, or when an investor fails to earn high enough returns to fund a goal like retirement.

If you're more than a decade from retirement, the biggest risk you face isn't that stocks will wobble around from time to time. It's that your long-term investment returns will be so low you won't be able to retire.

Think back to 1998. The Dow Jones plunged 20 percent in the middle of the year, after Russia defaulted on its debt and Asia spiraled into a financial crisis. At the time, the plunge was touted as an example of how risky stocks can be. "Investors are buying bonds because there is more perceived 'risk' in the 'stock' market," The Kansas City Star wrote during the fall. (Stocks actually were risky at the time because of sky-high valuations, but that's another story.)

But 15 years later, how many individual investors still care about the 20 percent plunge of 1998? None. No one. Few even remember it. The Dow recovered all of its losses within four months, and the world went on. What was proclaimed to be a clear example of risk was irrelevant and gone in 120 days -- a strange definition for those investing with decadelong time horizons.

This is an important topic today because stocks' recent volatility has caused investors to re-evaluate how risky they are. Millions of investors have decided they're too risky and since 2008 have plowed more than $1 trillion into bonds, which are typically less volatile.

Time will tell how this story plays out, but odds are it will end disastrously. In an attempt to "lower risk," investors are buying bonds at record-high prices, in many cases with yields so low they are begging for negative future returns after inflation. Bonds may be one of the riskiest bets you can make today, and I don't think most investors even realize it because they're so caught up with avoiding short-term volatility. As Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, recently pointed out, "Many investors do not understand what happens to a bond fund when rates rise."

Here's the answer: They'll probably lose money. The last time interest rates were near current levels, in the 1950s, Treasury bonds lost 40 percent of their inflation-adjusted value over the following three decades. For retirement plans that are already woefully underfunded, a repeat would be devastating.

As you work out the choice between stocks and bonds, ask yourself more than "How much risk can I take?" Ask, "What is risk?" If you have more than a decade to invest, the extra volatility of stocks probably shouldn't scare you. Losing a permanent fortune on bonds, on the other hand -- now that is risk.

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Morgan Housel, a columnist at The Motley Fool, is a two-time winner, Best in Business award, Society of American Business Editors and Writers and Best in Business 2012, Columbia Journalism Review.


Previously:


Bond Market Bull Run dead at 30



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