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Jewish World Review Feb. 28, 2011 / 24 Adar I, 5771 Why the GOP shouldn't fear a government shutd By Byron York http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | A lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill are terrified of a government shutdown. Look at what happened in 1995, they say, when Newt Gingrich forced a showdown with Bill Clinton and got his clock cleaned. It was a disaster the party can't afford to repeat. But another view is emerging in Republican circles. Perhaps GOP strategists have learned the wrong lesson from 1995. Maybe this time, while Republicans shouldn't seek a shutdown, they shouldn't fear one, either. For five reasons: One, if shutting down the government in 1995 was such a catastrophe, how come the GOP not only kept control of the House in the 1996 elections but remained the majority party in the House for a decade to come? The voter revenge predicted at the time did not happen. Two, even if the '95 shutdown hurt the GOP -- and there's no doubt the party suffered wounds inflicted not only by Clinton but also by themselves -- today's voters are in a different mood. "We have fiscal crises at the federal, state, and local level, and voters understand that," says Bill Paxon, a former Republican lawmaker and veteran of the shutdown. "Back in '95, we were whistling into the wind -- we were trying to preach fiscal discipline when voters were saying, 'Hey, there's not a problem.' " Three, Republicans like House Speaker John Boehner have learned from their mistakes. "Our goal is to cut spending and reduce the size of government, not to shut it down," Boehner said recently -- a statement he has repeated many times. Contrast that to '95, when, Paxon recalls, "We said we wanted to shut down the government, that it was a good thing, that it would get people's attention, that it would advance our cause." Now, it's Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and other Democrats who seem itching for a shutdown. Fourth, today's media environment is substantially different. "In '95 there was no Internet, no bloggers, no Facebook, no Fox News," says Dick Armey, who was House majority leader during the shutdown. "The discourse of politics today is carried out in a media world that didn't exist in 1995." That doesn't mean there wouldn't be negative coverage of Republicans if a shutdown occurs, just that the overall media picture would be more balanced. The fifth reason: Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton. "In '95, Clinton was at the table working hard, sleeves rolled up, everybody knew we were having meetings at the White House and the president was engaged," says Armey. "This president is seen as disengaged and aloof from the process. Barack Obama is a rank amateur compared to Bill Clinton." Looking back, Republicans concede that Clinton had their number. They particularly remember the January 1996 State of the Union address, when, after the shutdown was over -- actually there were two separate shutdowns a few weeks apart -- Clinton laid a trap that still makes them wince today. Praising the dedication and commitment of federal workers, Clinton pointed to a man named Richard Dean, a Social Security employee who was in the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City when it was bombed on April 19, 1995. Escaping the rubble, Dean went back into the building and saved three lives. Clinton brought him to Washington to attend the speech. When Clinton asked the audience to applaud Dean's service and heroism, lawmakers, including all the Republicans in the room, burst into an extended standing ovation. But Clinton had more to say. "Richard Dean's story doesn't end there," he continued. "This last November, he was forced out of his office when the government shut down. And the second time the government shut down, he continued helping Social Security recipients, but he was working without pay." For workers like Dean, Clinton said, "I challenge all of you in this chamber: Never, ever shut the federal government down again." Democrats burst into applause; Gingrich sat on his hands. Republicans knew they had been outfoxed again; ask Paxon how he felt at that moment, and he recalls a single word: "Oops." Clinton later bragged about the "zinger" that stuck it to his opponents. "I didn't think I had to worry about a third government shutdown," he wrote in his memoir, "My Life." Could it happen again? Possibly. But some of the veterans of 1995 believe Obama is good, but not that good. None of this is to suggest that a government shutdown would be a good thing. It wouldn't. But Republicans are beginning to think that this time, it might turn out differently. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. Comment on Byron York's column by clicking here. Previously: 02/22/11 In Hawaii, a dispiriting glimpse of one-party rule 02/21/11 Obama team uses slippery words to tout budget 02/15/11 Myth and memory: The battle over Reagan's legacy 02/07/11 Invoking Reagan, Palin says ‘this is a time for choosing again’ 01/31/11 With each passing year, Reagan grows larger in the American political imagination 01/24/11 House GOP begins long drive to dismantle Obamacare 01/17/11 GOP gears up again to strip NPR of federal funds 01/10/11 To House GOP, illegal immigration is a jobs issue 01/03/11 Obamacare mess is legacy of Dems' moment of power 12/27/10 Smiling Dems will soon cry ‘Washington is broken’ 12/20/10 Dems are earmark junkies but GOP goes straight 12/13/10 Needed: A ‘more presidential’ Palin 12/06/10 With Dems in a funk, Obama charts a new course 11/29/10 Obama's poll numbers point to his defeat in 2012 11/22/10 Holder ignored risks of civilian terror trials 11/16/10 Dems love facts and science --- except when they don't 11/08/10 Obama, new GOP lawmakers are on collision course 11/01/10 New GOP star on track to defeat Dem legend Russ Feingold 10/26/10 If Dems lose, Obama will blame everyone but himself 10/19/10 Profligate Congress should read its own bills 10/13/10 Why Big Labor couldn't match Glenn Beck's rally 10/11/10 Trash-talking Democrat faces defeat in Florida 10/05/10 A GOP unknown in striking distance of Barney Frank 09/28/10 Administration inflates green-jobs numbers 09/20/10 In Delaware, GOP should target Dems, not O'Donnell 09/14/10 GOP Insiders Wary of Landslide Predictions 08/31/10 For Obamacare supporters, judgment day approaches 08/23/10 Obama has himself to blame for Muslim problem 08/17/10 Cut spending without cutting services? Start here 08/17/10 For Michelle Obama, extravagance dents popularity 08/09/10 Obama's zealous civil rights enforcer gets busy 08/02/10 A battle between Left and Right --- inside the GOP 07/26/10 GOP spoiling for fight over Berwick appointment 07/20/10 How long will the public tolerate Afghan war? 07/12/10 NASA's Muslim outreach: Al Jazeera told first 07/02/10 Legal complaint against Gore is detailed, credible 06/28/10 Obama and Dems heading for electoral disaster 06/21/10 Who told Obama drilling is ‘absolutely safe’? 06/14/10 Billions for ‘green jobs,’ whatever they are 06/07/10 Sestak a no-go for any job. So what was the deal? 05/31/10 As economic worries worsen, White House puts on the glitz 05/25/10 GOP dilemma: Fight Kagan, or go along? 05/11/10 Enforcing nation's immigration laws would be a bargain 05/03/10 How Obama could lose Arizona immigration battle 04/27/10 What's behind the anti-Tea Party hate narrative? 04/20/10 As government expands, beware the post-office example 04/19/10 Who wins in 2010? Good luck reading tea leaves 04/12/10 GOP Obamacare strategy: Try repeal, then cut 04/05/10 Obamacare was mainly aimed at redistributing wealth 03/30/10 Message to Dems: People still don't like Obamacare 03/23/10 The coming consequences of Obamacare 03/16/10 Marco Rubio and the Republicans who love him 03/15/10 GOP hopes town halls take health care off table 03/08/10 Dems turn risky health vote into manhood contest 03/01/10 Why Obama defies the public on health care 02/22/10 South Carolina mulls 2012: Romney? Palin? Huck? 02/16/10 GOP winning war over Miranda rights for terrorists 02/09/10 Who are the 300 terrorists held in U.S. prisons? 02/02/10 Is Obama dissatisfied with being president? 01/19/10 The Republican dilemma: Good Michael or Bad Michael? 01/12/10 Now the lawmakers are figuring out what they didn't know 01/05/10 GOP deserves blame for Democratic excesses 12/29/09 Dems' dreams of a blue West begin to turn red 12/22/09 Why Dems push health care, even if it kills them 11/30/09 Dems' kamikaze mission: Health care by New Year's 11/23/09 Why it's a mistake to bring Gitmo prisoners here 11/16/09 Dems' slick fix: $210 billion of fiscal restraint 11/10/09 Obama can't be community organizer for the world 11/02/09 At key moment, Obama leaves health post unfilled 10/26/09 ‘Fierce urgency' for jobs, not health care’ 10/12/09 Facts hurt Jennings in youth sex controversy 10/05/09 Amid terror threat, Dems chip away at Patriot Act 09/27/09 In Afghanistan, let U.S. troops be warriors 09/21/09 Under fire, Democrats abandon ACORN in drove 09/14/09 Dems stifle Republican health care plans 09/08/09 For Dems, a serious Charlie Rangel problem 09/07/09 Obama's speech: Wrong setting for a sales job 09/01/09 What happened to the antiwar movement? 08/24/09 Why Dems may jam through health care plan 08/17/09 GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010 08/10/09 The empty words of a journalist turned flack 08/03/09 Probe finds new clues in AmeriCorps IG scandal 07/27/09 Obamacare haunted by unkept promises of stimulus 07/20/09 Why the GOP failed the Sotomayor test 07/13/09 What the GOPers will ask Sotomayor 06/29/09 Serious questions remain for Mark Sanford 06/22/09 How GOPers can crack the AmeriCorps scandal 06/16/09 Worried about Sotomayor? Consider Andre Davis 06/08/09 Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP? 06/01/09 When the Dems derailed a Latino nominee 05/26/09 Why the GOP will defeat Obama on healthcare 05/19/09 Rosy report can't hide stimulus problems 05/12/09 The Reagan legacy is the man himself 05/05/09 Sen. Specter, meet your new friends 04/27/09 Ted Olson: ‘Torture' probes will never end 04/20/09 Who's Laughing at the ‘Axis of Evil’ today? 04/14/09 Congress needs Google to track stimulus money 04/06/09 Beyond AIG: A bill to let Big Government set your salary 03/30/09 On Spending and the Deficit, McCain Was Right 03/24/09 It's Obama's crisis now 03/17/09: Geithner-Obama economics: A joke that's not funny © 2009, NEA

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