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Jewish World Review February 22, 2010 / 8 Adar 5770 South Carolina mulls 2012: Romney? Palin? Huck? By Byron York http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Columbia, S.C.— South Carolina is a lovely place, and its attractions bring thousands of tourists each year, but lately it's been getting a special class of visitor. Rick Santorum, the former Republican senator who harbors presidential ambitions, has been here in recent weeks. So has Sen. John Thune, the South Dakota Republican, whose name is sometimes whispered by the Great Mentioner. Mike Huckabee, former GOP presidential candidate and current talk show host, will be here soon. And so will Haley Barbour, the Mississippi governor who many would like to make a run for the White House. They're not coming to play golf. Two years before South Carolina's first-in-the-South presidential primary — a key test in any GOP race — possible contenders are roaming around, forging relationships that will prove valuable if they decide to run. And they're going to test the question of whether South Carolina's Republicans will welcome a new breed of candidate. In the past, the state's voters have favored candidates they know, mostly from previous campaigns. "The history of South Carolina has always been to look for a repeat guy," says David Woodard, professor of political science at Clemson University and a sometime political consultant. For example, in 1988, Bob Dole lost the GOP race to George H.W. Bush, but the next time an open contest came around, in 1996, the state went to Dole. In 2000, South Carolina went to George W. Bush over John McCain, in part because of the connection to Bush's father. But then, in 2008, the state chose the familiar McCain. This time, Woodard expects a winner with a link to the past. "If it's somebody who hasn't run before, they're going to have a hard sell," he says. That's good news for Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, who ran here in '08. Romney hasn't been around much — by this time in 2006, he was getting pretty familiar — but local politicos expect to see him after his new book, "No Apology: The Case for American Greatness," comes out in early March. Another boost for Romney could be Sen. Jim DeMint, who endorsed the former Massachusetts governor in 2008. DeMint's increasingly prominent role in opposing the policies of the Obama administration has made him "incredibly popular" here in South Carolina, in the words of one conservative activist. That popularity could make DeMint a power broker, or even a contender for the national ticket. If DeMint goes with Romney again, it could be a very big deal — especially since Romney has never really excited the state's voters. The wild card here, as it is almost everywhere, is Sarah Palin. There's no doubt that McCain's selection of Palin energized Republicans who were unhappy with his candidacy. "There will be a lot of carry-over from that going into the next cycle," says Oran Smith, head of the Palmetto Family Council, which is South Carolina's version of the socially conservative Family Research Council. But not with everybody, and not even with all of the state's social conservatives. "There are a lot of folks who really, really like her," Smith says, "but there are others who think she's fine, but ask, 'Who else do we have?' " When I suggested to Smith that that sounded somewhat equivocal, he said, "Personally, not speaking for the organization, I am a little equivocal. I'm not sure if she is the perfect match for a nominee for president." Among those who see themselves more as economic and national defense conservatives, the doubts are stronger. At a recent focus group (well, actually it was a lunch) with six University of South Carolina Law School students — all conservative, all politically active — there was a consensus against Palin. The students had been enthusiastic when she was first picked for the '08 ticket. They were wowed when she addressed the Republican National Convention. And then it was downhill from there. They believe Palin shares their conservative instincts, but that she's just not up to the job. Of course, there's always the possibility South Carolinians will break their pattern and go with someone new. If Romney, Huckabee and Palin all fail to turn on the voters, that could open the way for Tim Pawlenty (who hasn't been here recently), or Thune, or some complete stranger. Whatever happens, the road to the nomination in this key GOP state is wide-open — and very likely bumpy. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. Comment on Byron York's column by clicking here. Previously: 02/16/10 GOP winning war over Miranda rights for terrorists 02/09/10 Who are the 300 terrorists held in U.S. prisons? 02/02/10 Is Obama dissatisfied with being president? 01/19/10 The Republican dilemma: Good Michael or Bad Michael? 01/12/10 Now the lawmakers are figuring out what they didn't know 01/05/10 GOP deserves blame for Democratic excesses 12/29/09 Dems' dreams of a blue West begin to turn red 12/22/09 Why Dems push health care, even if it kills them 11/30/09 Dems' kamikaze mission: Health care by New Year's 11/23/09 Why it's a mistake to bring Gitmo prisoners here 11/16/09 Dems' slick fix: $210 billion of fiscal restraint 11/10/09 Obama can't be community organizer for the world 11/02/09 At key moment, Obama leaves health post unfilled 10/26/09 ‘Fierce urgency' for jobs, not health care’ 10/12/09 Facts hurt Jennings in youth sex controversy 10/05/09 Amid terror threat, Dems chip away at Patriot Act 09/27/09 In Afghanistan, let U.S. troops be warriors 09/21/09 Under fire, Democrats abandon ACORN in drove 09/14/09 Dems stifle Republican health care plans 09/08/09 For Dems, a serious Charlie Rangel problem 09/07/09 Obama's speech: Wrong setting for a sales job 09/01/09 What happened to the antiwar movement? 08/24/09 Why Dems may jam through health care plan 08/17/09 GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010 08/10/09 The empty words of a journalist turned flack 08/03/09 Probe finds new clues in AmeriCorps IG scandal 07/27/09 Obamacare haunted by unkept promises of stimulus 07/20/09 Why the GOP failed the Sotomayor test 07/13/09 What the GOPers will ask Sotomayor 06/29/09 Serious questions remain for Mark Sanford 06/22/09 How GOPers can crack the AmeriCorps scandal 06/16/09 Worried about Sotomayor? Consider Andre Davis 06/08/09 Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP? 06/01/09 When the Dems derailed a Latino nominee 05/26/09 Why the GOP will defeat Obama on healthcare 05/19/09 Rosy report can't hide stimulus problems 05/12/09 The Reagan legacy is the man himself 05/05/09 Sen. Specter, meet your new friends 04/27/09 Ted Olson: ‘Torture’ probes will never end 04/20/09 Who's Laughing at the ‘Axis of Evil’ today? 04/14/09 Congress needs Google to track stimulus money 04/06/09 Beyond AIG: A bill to let Big Government set your salary 03/30/09 On Spending and the Deficit, McCain Was Right 03/24/09 It's Obama's crisis now 03/17/09: Geithner-Obama economics: A joke that's not funny © 2009, NEA

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