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April 21, 2014

Andrew Silow-Carroll: Passoverkill? Suggestions to make next year's seders even more culturally sensitive

Sara Israelsen Hartley: Seeking the Divine: An ancient connection in a new context

Christine M. Flowers: Priest's execution in Syria should be call to action

Courtnie Erickson: How to help kids accept the poor decisions of others

Lizette Borreli: A Glass Of Milk A Day Keeps Knee Arthritis At Bay

Lizette Borreli: 5 Health Conditions Your Breath Knows Before You Do

The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom Coconut Walnut Bars' golden brown morsels are a beautifully balanced delectable delight

April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Feb. 17, 2005 / 8 Adar I, 5765

Hezbollah: The terrorist threat on the horizon

By George Friedman


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | As the maneuvering over Iraq continues, the Iranians and the Syrians made an interesting move. They have renewed an old alliance, which dates back to the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref met with Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otariand on Feb. 16 and declared a "common front" against the United States.


What this united front actually means is unclear, to say the least. On the surface, it appears to be the Coalition of the Trapped. The Syrians are surrounded by three enemies: Israel, Turkey and the United States. The Iranians are in a better position, but they also are fairly isolated militarily. What the two, taken together, can achieve is unclear.


The concern of the Syrians is obvious. Their number one interest is to maintain their enormous influence in Lebanon. This is a financial as well as strategic issue. The Syrians make a load of money doing business in Lebanon and they don't want to be replaced by foreign businessmen. On Feb. 14, a suicide bombing killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. The universal suspicion is that the Syrians were behind it. The Syrians were afraid that Hariri, whose wealth made him one of the most powerful men in Lebanon, was trying to pry loose of Syrian control. The thinking is that the Syrians took him out, possibly using the Iranian-controlled Hezbollah.


Iran is also facing a fundamental challenge to its interests in Iraq. A neutral Iraq is important to Iran. It hates the Sunnis, but is becoming uneasy about the relationship of the Iraqi Shiites and the Americans. Iran has tried to pull Iraq into its orbit. As with Syria in Lebanon, it is starting to wonder whether it will happen. Quite apart from the issue of nuclear facilities, the Iranians are beginning to feel that the outcome of the Iraq war is going to leave them in worse shape than they might have imagined two years ago. Even though the likely new prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari, is quite close to Teheran, the Iranians are little closer than they were before to exercising certain control over Iraq's future.


Syria and Iran therefore are feeling the same force coming at them. As the U.S. starts getting traction in Iraq, it is moving in various ways to contract the power of other regimes it distrusts. The means here isn't military. It is covert and political. It is using its influence to wean Lebanon from Syria. It is doing the same to split the Iraqi and Iranian Shiites. As a result, Syria and Iran are seeing their national interests start to evaporate.


Now, seeing and doing something about it are two very different things. The killing of Hariri is a signal to the Lebanese that Syrian patience has its limits. Iran has not yet made a definitive move in Iraq, but they are going to have to do something pretty soon or throw in the towel. Both countries are under pressure to preserve core interests in the face of pressure from a common threat, the United States.


Militarily, there is little they can do. The Iranian nuclear threat is hollow. They are not only believed to be six months or more away from having a nuclear capability, they can expect that capability to be destroyed before it becomes operational, by the Americans or the Israelis. They are not going nuclear unless they get very lucky, and in that case, they will have just enough weapons to get into very deep trouble.


The American weak spot is not nuclear weapons. It is terrorism. The U.S. is simply not good at coping with sparse, global, covert networks. It has focused its attention on al-Qaida and has gotten somewhere, but this has been a long, hard, uncertain road. Terrorism is the weak spot.


Al-Qaida is not the only competent covert force in the world. The other is Hezbollah, which is the Shiite equivalent of al-Qaida, a Sunni force. Hezbollah became prominent in the 1980s as an Iranian-sponsored, Syrian-supported force operating out of Lebanon. It took part in Lebanon's civil war and against Israel. Hezbollah has been relatively quiet on a global scale, but it continues to exist and continues to operate in Lebanon. And interestingly, CIA director Porter Goss told Congress on Feb. 16 — shortly after Syria and Iran announced their "common front" — that Hezbollah is capable of attacking the United States if it so desires. Though Hezbollah has not been active beyond the Middle East for a decade, it is significant that Goss would make this statement so publicly. Clearly, Washington perceives a risk to its interests in some regards, and Goss' statements are turning up the heat on Teheran and Damascus.


The killing of Hariri and the resurrection of the Syrian-Iranian alliance has meaning only if they are planning to unleash Hezbollah. At the very least, they are threatening to do so, in the hope of using it as a bargaining chip with the United States. However, if the U.S. bargains on that basis, the Syrians and Iranians will roll the United States on a range of issues. The United States can't give on this threat and Hezbollah is the only card Syrian and Iran can play effectively.


In other words, it may well be that another trained, experienced and dedicated organization is now being ramped up—and it isn't al-Qaida. Hezbollah is a capable and deadly force. It is to be taken very seriously.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in Washington and the media consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

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George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments.


02/07/05: Why are the Chinese moving their money out of China?
02/03/05: Next Pope could, and maybe should, be a Third-Worlder
01/27/05: Decision-day in Iran: Is it for or against United States?
01/14/05: Russia's missile sale to Syria gets back at U.S. over Ukraine
01/06/05: Tsunami realities: Most in need are least likely to get help


© 2005 TMS