The economy, so far, is thrumming along. But Trump's decision to kill Iranian Maj.
And that would break Trump's base. He'd be done in 2020.
On Tuesday evening,
The never-Trumpers, the stalwarts of the pro-war wing of the Bush
They sold us on the invasion of
Now they sing Trump's praises for his killing of Soleimani. Trump voters hear them sing their song, and they worry.
For the pro-war Republican establishment wants an end to the Iranian regime, come hell or high water. It sees a nuclear
"If the Iranians hit American targets and American interests and American allies, we will respond militarily," said former Trump loather, now supporter, Sen.
"If they hit us again, I would not want to be working in an Iranian oil field," Graham said, "because I think the president is determined to bring this regime to its knees if they continue to be provocative."
Graham doesn't have to worry about dodging bullets. Neither do I, sitting comfortably while typing.
But isn't this how wars begin? Slowly, then all at once.
American voters aren't as supple. Americans vote their bank accounts. The economy is doing spectacularly well for many. But if it fades and goes south in a recession, Trump will lose independent voters and the election.
And what of Trump's base? They're the forgotten, the people mocked by the
They've had enough of wars. And he'd lose them if another war begins.
In 2016, Trump assumed control of the
Trump campaigned against those endless
Americans can handle the killing of Soleimani. Especially the loved ones of those who lost their legs or arms or lives to Soleimani's IEDs.
What Americans don't want is war, troops on the ground, and that is where Trump is being led.
As I was writing this, a father of an American combat soldier who served in
"This is a game changer. Trump is taking out their leaders. We don't mind that," he told me. "You go after the decision-makers who orchestrate or sponsor violence and terror from a safe distance. It changes the dynamic. What I do mind is our own guys' boots on the ground. We don't want another war."
One rule of politics is that all politicians lie. But if you lie to your base, and they know it, you're lost.
Think back to the 2016 campaign, with Trump fighting it out with the Bush family, condemning their wars in
A movie was out in theaters, "Hell or High Water," released in 2016, a modern Western film about bank robber brothers played by
It was a fine film. There was a line in the movie that explained the Trump base in that 2016 election. And it holds the key to his 2020 re-election campaign.
It was painfully true then and it is now. It wasn't dialogue. It was graffiti, scrawled in blood-red paint on a sun-bleached wall in a hot, dusty, dying town, a desperate cry of the forgotten:
"Three tours in
It was a highly political movie that didn't mention politics, a story of archetypes, of "deplorables" in flyover country, the part of red-state America that the media and political elites don't care all that much about, except when the people are to be used as props.
The bank robber brothers in the movie are fictional, but their America is real, the America of the forgotten, the people who play by the rules and went to war themselves, and sent their sons and daughters to war when their country asked it of them.
Now they're done with wars.
If this spins out of control,
The end of Trump.
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John Kass is a columnist for the Chicago Tribune who also hosts a radio show on WLS-AM.