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Jewish World Review Jan 11, 2012/ 16 Teves, 5772 Rational to bet on the rationality of religious zealots whose backs are to the wall? By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
For most Americans, national security policy becomes an important issue only on those fortunately rare occasions --such as Pearl Harbor or 9/11 -- when it becomes all important.
One of those rare occasions may be fast approaching.
In November, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported Iran is going full bore on its nuclear weapons program, and a government-sponsored mob attacked the British embassy in Tehran. So in early December, the U.S. Congress and the European Union passed tough new economic sanctions -- though neither President Barack Obama or the EU have fully implemented them.
Even so, the sanctions -- which, among other things, deny access to U.S. and European markets to firms which do business with Iranian banks -- are hurting Iran badly. In the last month, the Iranian rial has declined in value by more than 25 percent against both the dollar and the euro.
This means Iran must pay much more for what it imports. The price of food staples has increased 40 percent in recent months, Reuters reported Jan. 2.
Oil production is down, due to an embargo-generated decline in foreign investment, Iran's deputy oil minister admitted Dec. 20. Sales of oil account for 60 percent of Iran's income. Sales would decline much further if sanctions are imposed on Iran's oil exports.
If that happens, Iran will shut down the Strait of Hormuz, Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi threatened Dec. 27. Closing the Persian Gulf to oil tankers would be "easier than drinking a glass of water," Iran's naval commander boasted the next day.
Iran claimed on Jan. 2 to have tested successfully two new long range missiles, but the tests appear to have been faked.
On Jan. 3, Iran's army chief threatened to attack the aircraft carrier John C. Stennis if it returned to the Persian Gulf.
"I advise, recommend and warn them over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once," said Major General Ataollah Salehi.
Nearly 20 percent of the world's oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. If the Strait were closed to tanker traffic, experts think gasoline prices would jump north of $5 a gallon, and the odds of a world-wide hair curling depression could approach 90 percent.
Can Iran close the Strait? Would the mullahs actually do it? Or are they just bluffing?
The U.S. Navy is confident it can keep the Strait open. Most military experts agree. During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), both Iran and Iraq tried to shut down shipping in the Gulf, without much success.
But Iran doesn't need to close the Strait to cause severe economic harm, Jim Lacey, who teaches strategy at the Marine Corps War College, reminds us. All the mullahs have to do is to make it so risky for oil tankers insurance companies yank their coverage.
So the key question is whether the mullahs are bluffing. The Obama administration thinks their threats are just bluster. Washington Post columnist Fareed Zakaria, a liberal, agrees. It would be madness for Iran to close the Strait, he said, because that would shut down Iran's oil exports and imports too, which would totally crash their economy.
Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations, a conservative, also thinks they're bluffing. The mullahs must realize that "by initiating hostilities they risk American retaliation against their most prized asset -- their covert nuclear weapons program," he said.
But it may not be rational to bet on the rationality of religious zealots whose backs are to the wall.
"Everything Iran's leaders have said and done for 30 years suggests that the mullahs are driven by an Islamic vision of a Muslim nation at war with infidels," noted Bruce Thornton of the Hoover Institution.
Wars are started most often by leaders who think their time is ebbing away. Iran is imploding demographically as well as economically. Soon, "the Islamic world will have the same proportion of dependent elderly as the industrial countries -- but one tenth the productivity," noted David Goldman in his new book, "How Civilizations Die."
This is "a time bomb that cannot be defused," of which the mullahs are well aware. Demographic decline makes them more dangerous, Mr. Goldman said, "for in their despair, radical Muslims who can already taste the ruin of their culture believe that they have nothing to lose."
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JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.
© 2011, Jack Kelly |
Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||||
