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Jewish World Review
Jan. 27, 2011 / 22 Shevat, 5771
Small-scale Terrorist Attacks: Big Strategy?
By
Arnold Ahlert
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
On Tuesday, while it was being reported that Russia had endured another terrorist atrocity killing 35 and wounding over 150, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 109 points. That got me thinking about a statement Democrat candidate John Kerry made the 2004 presidential campaign: "We have to get back to the place we were, where terrorists are not the focus of our lives, but they're a nuisance…(terrorism) isn't threatening people's lives every day, and fundamentally, it's something that you continue to fight, but it's not threatening the fabric of your life." Have we reached such a point--or have Islamic terrorists embraced a brilliant strategy for lulling the West into a distorted sense of complacency?
On September 11, 2001, Islamic fascists killed nearly three thousand Americans in an hour-an-a-half. While this was no doubt a grand victory for al Qaeda, et al, in the short term, it was a long-term strategic error for a movement determined to transform the world into a giant Islamic Caliphate. It was an error based on the fundamental calculation that America was, as Osama Bin Laden put it, a "paper tiger." Bin Laden was reasonably sure that our country had been permanently scarred by our premature withdrawal from Vietnam, which the American left, up to their collective eyeballs in anti-war sentiment, characterized as a "victory" despite the extermination of nearly three million Asians in the following years.
Another calculation was likely part of the mix as well. From the extermination of 241 American troops in Lebanon in 1983, to the attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen in 2000, which killed 17 American servicemen--along with a string of atrocities in between, including Pan American Airlines Flight 103 blown up over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988; the first bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993; the bombing of the U.S. military's Khobar Towers in 1996; and the bombing of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998--it must have seemed apparent that America had no over-arching plan to deal with radical Islam. Or perhaps even more encouraging, Bin Laden concluded America was content to deal with every atrocity through the lens of "law enforcement" and its piecemeal approach. From that standpoint, it was logical to assume that the attacks of 9/11 would yield a lot of talk and hand-wringing, and perhaps some high-profile civilian trials, but nothing on a grand scale with respect to retaliation.
From a tactical point of view, it was a fatal miscalculation. Aside from the number of people killed, Al Qaeda underestimated the fury of a country which had endured only one other substantial attack on its homeland. Once again, as it was after Pearl Harbor, a "sleeping giant" had been awakened and "filled with a terrible resolve." On September 14th, 2001, Congress voted to "authorize the use of United States armed forces" to go after al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The vote totals where overwhelming: 420 yes, 1 nay and 10 abstentions in the House; 98 ayes, 0 nays and 2 abstentions in the Senate. On October 11th , 2002, Congress also authorized the use of force in Iraq, with a 77-23 majority in the Senate and a 296-133 margin in the House.
Thus the war on terror began in earnest, and in the ensuing years, Islamic terrorists have been unable to mount anything resembling the level of carnage America endured almost ten years ago. There is no question that the forces of terror also endured catastrophic losses in the interim. Many of Al Qaeda's top operatives have been captured or killed, and their safe haven in Afghanistan, along with a sympathetic Ba'athist government in Iraq, no longer exist. As a result, many American leftists now insist that the threat of terror is "overblown," or part of a "politics of fear" strategy to be exploited during election campaigns. Those on the right like to believe the Bush administration dealt international terrorists such a terrible blow that they have yet to recover, based on the aforementioned lack of large-scale terrorist attacks since 2001.
What if both sides are wrong? What if Islamic fanatics have seen the error of their ways and realized that an attack on the scale of 9/11 was premature? What if they have come to the conclusion that anything which engenders large-scale retaliation against Islamic terror at this point in time could be fatal to their long-term interests? Certainly if one considers an Islamic birthrate which exceeds that of every Western nation, Western apathy and indifference towards defending our own heritage, the double-game being played by our ostensible allies in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan who continue to support terrorism even as they deny it, and the seemingly unstoppable pursuit of nuclear weapons by Iran, one could make the case that time is on their side. Perhaps Muammar Qadaffi was prescient when he said, "We don't need terrorists, we don't need homicide bombers. The 50+ million Muslims will turn (Europe) into a Muslim continent within a few decades."
And it's not just demographics which accrues to the interests of Islamo-fascism. The march of technology does as well: when Iran becomes as capable as North Korea, it's a whole new ball game. When Islamists get the inter-continental missile delivery systems to go along with the bombs, it will be even worse.
What to do in the interim? How about maintaining jihadist morale and and fine-tuning terrorist operational capabilities? How about a series of attacks from Bali to Beslan, from Madrid to Mumbai, along with Tuesdays attack in Russia, all of which produce substantial numbers of killed and wounded--but insufficient numbers to galvanize a worldwide response by the West? A West which still possesses the capabilities to destroy terrorists as well as the nations who support them, but apparently lacks sufficient provocation to do so?
In addition, how about exploring new safe havens on the continent of Africa even as the West explores "tougher" sanctions against Iran? How about making meaningful inroads into Western cultural institutions, even as Congress holds meaningless hearings on radical Islam in which experts who know the genuine nature of jihadism are excluded from the process? How about gearing up for future theaters of operation, even as America announces its intentions to gear down in both Iraqi and Afghani theaters in the next three years?
How about preparing for world war, even as countless Western apologists continue to insist Islam is a "religion of peace?"
Even those who understand the true nature of Islamic radicalism probably believe that if terrorists could kill a million people, they would do it. Maybe, but I doubt it. Like 9/11, such an attack would invite far worse retaliation, maybe even the annihilation of large population centers and the abandonment of our "politically correct" approach to war, in which winning hearts and minds and nation-building would be replaced with the kind of grim determination that won WWll.
Right now, all the game-changing capabilities are in Western hands--and the terrorists know it. Until that changes, I suspect we'll continue to see a calculated level of atrocity perpetrated in the name of Islam. It will be enough to keep their jihadist followers amped up, but not enough to engender a full-scale effort by the West to destroy them completely. If so, it's a brilliant, "death by a thousand cuts" strategy. One I'd like to think has been contemplated by people paid to think about the unthinkable.
Vladmir Putin has promised a strong response to what occurred on Tuesday. Yet one suspects that no matter how strong that response is, Russia will continue to do business with Iran, despite that nation's inarguable role in facilitating worldwide terror. Attorney General Eric Holder will still refuse to nix the idea of holding civilian trials for 9/11 terrorists. Hamas will likely take control of the government in Lebanon, right under the noses of the United Nations "peace-keeping" forces. Christians will continue to be persecuted and killed in the Middle East. Al Qaeda will still maintain an operational control center in North Waziristan. Mosques and madrassas preaching jihadism, many of them funded by Saudi Arabia, will still be open for business in America and Europe. And the beat goes on, while scant few in the West keep tabs on a movement gathering strength and confidence, with just enough violence thrown in to "stay in shape" for something far greater down the road.
How long will the West continue to countenance such a "nuisance?"
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Previously:
01/24/11: Jeffery Immelt: A Crony Capitalist In Charge of Job Creation
01/20/11: An ‘Intimate’ Prime-time Interview
01/17/11: Progressives: Always Angry, Newly Desperate
01/12/11: Twain vs. the Totalitarians
01/10/11: Politically Correct Passports?
01/05/11: Showdown at the Fiscal Corral
01/03/11: Reading the Constitution Aloud is a Good Start
12/30/10: Getting Our Moral Mojo Back
12/27/10: PC Airport Safety is an Oxymoron
12/23/10: Getting America Back On Track
12/20/10: A Collectivist Coalition of Convenience
12/15/10: The President Who Wasn't There
12/13/10: Tech-No!
12/08/10: A Lethal Military, Inclusive or Not
12/06/10: The ‘Unexpected’ Consequences of Progressivism
12/01/10: Leakers and Losers
11/29/10: ‘We Won’, Part One
11/22/10: Keep Your Hands Off My Constitution
11/17/10: Grope and Change
11/14/10: Taking Back Our Country, One School At a Time
11/11/10: Checks (and Balances), Please
11/08/10: Curtain Up, Progressives Down
11/04/10: Last Chance, Republicans
11/01/10: By Their Own Words Shall Ye Know Them
10/28/10: Progressive Determination to Undermine American Elections
10/25/10: Shock, but more importantly, action: De-Unionize Public Schools now
10/20/10: Multiculturalism? Check, Please
10/18/10: Healthcare: ‘Alice in Wonderland’ vs. The Constitution
10/11/10: Vote for Restoring the Rule of Law in November
10/11/10: Dems: Running From Clarity
10/07/10: Hypersensitive Hogwash
10/04/10: ‘Comprehensive’ Con Artists
09/29/10: Why Dems Are Going Down in November
09/27/10: The Unholiest of Unholy Alliances
09/22/10: Two Words for Republicans to Remember: ‘I Won’
09/20/10: Purging ‘Me First’ Politicians
09/17/10: No More ‘Lesser of Two Evils’
09/15/10: ‘Recovery’ Arms Race
09/13/10: ‘Bigots’ in the Majority --- Again?
09/09/10: Giving Voters Something to Vote For
09/07/10: Irresponsible Dems, Incomprehensible Bills
09/02/10: War Weary Americans vs. Implacable Islamists
08/31/10: A ‘Dream’ Debased
08/25/10: American ‘Bigots’ Versus Media Propagandists
08/23/10: Recovery Bummer
08/19/10: An Unholy Alliance of Radicals
08/16/10: You've Lost America, Mr. President
08/13/10: The Twin Towers of Progressive Disconnect
08/11/10: A Far Better ‘National Discussion’
08/09/10: It's ‘Only’ One Dead Nun
08/06/10: Incremental Tyranny
08/04/10: Ground Zero Mosque: Context Counts
08/02/10: The Arizona Ruling: a Gift for November
07/29/10: The United Cities of America
07/26/10: JournoList: ‘Coordinated’ Ideological Bankruptcy
07/20/10: Go For Broke Or Get Out of the Way
07/14/10: You're a Liberal/Progressive if You Believe…
07/12/10: $33-an-hour--For Sleeping On the Job
07/08/10: Extortionist Government
07/06/10: ‘Commerce Clause’ Totalitarians
07/01/10: Another Public School Travesty in MA
06/30/10: Calling YOUR Bluff, Mr. President
06/28/10: A Trifecta of Progressive Corruption
06/23/10: Plug the Darn Hole --- In Our Border
06/21/10: Our Empty-Suit-in-Chief
06/16/10: Betraying Our Children
06/14/10: Who Gets the Benefit of the Doubt?
06/07/10: Politically Correct Warfare
06/01/10: Bill Maher's ‘Black’ President
05/25/10: A Mosque At Ground Zero
05/23/10: Libs Stand Tall --- For Mexico
05/19/10: The 'Unintended Consequences' of Liberalism
05/17/10: 'Los' Suns: Stuck on Stupido
05/12/10: Union Audacity: Yes We Will!
05/10/10: Greeks, Leaks and and Double-Speak
05/05/10: Twelve Million Illegals --- or Thirty?
05/02/10: Republicans: Playing Not to Lose Doesn't Cut It
04/28/10: Arizona: Progressivism's Waterloo?
04/26/10: Son of Amnesty
04/22/10: Mortgages and Moral Meltdowns
04/20/10: Bashing Christians — Or Gays?
04/15/10: Personal Integri-‘tea’
04/12/10: Fools, Tools and Ghouls
04/08/10: (Tea) Party On
04/05/10: The Triumph of Mediocrity
04/02/10: Two For the Road
03/29/10: The Innate Immorality of Liberalism
03/24/10: The Art of War
03/22/10: I Want My Country Back
03/18/10: A Perpetual Process
03/17/10: American Exhibitionists
03/15/10: A Light Bulb Moment of Clarity
03/10/10: Little Things Mean A Lot
02/03/10: Budgetary Fork in the Road
02/01/10: Liberal Economic Illiteracy
01/27/10: ‘Roe-ing and Wade-ing’ Back to Reason
01/25/10: Arrogance When Up, Denial When Down
01/20/10: Connecting the Educational Dots
01/19/10: The Next Tea Party?
01/15/10: The Myth That Keeps on Giving
01/13/10: Airport Security Begins Away From the Airport
01/11/10: Secrets and Lies
01/08/10: Embracing Bigotry — or Rejecting Bullying?
01/06/10: Hanging by an Ideological Thread
01/04/10: Our ‘Wonderama’ Bureaucracy
12/30/09: A Day Off
12/28/09: Dangerous Myths
12/25/09: I, Me, Mine
12/23/09: A Very Harry Christmas
12/21/09: My Opinon
12/18/09: The Party of Repeal
12/15/09: Privileged Exemption
11/30/09: ‘Settled’ Science and Unsettled Children
11/30/09: American Sharia Law
11/23/09:The Trial (Travesty) of the Century
11/04/09: American Vampires and Their Political Enablers
11/01/09: ‘Opting Out’ of Insanity?
10/28/09: Cell Phones Cause Brain Cancer. Brain Required
10/26/09: Communism: Nazism With Better PR
10/21/09: Just Asking
10/16/09: Cost Projections vs. Actual Costs, or Hope and Change vs. Reality
10/14/09: News you can use …
10/07/09: Incremental Insidiousness
10/05/09: MIA: Common Sense and Common Decency
09/30/09: Iran: Bad Options and Unpreparedness
09/21/09: Crying Racism: the Last Refuge of Scoundrels
09/11/09: 9/11 Cannot Be Sanitized
09/08/09: ‘Truthers’ and Consequences
09/01/09: A ‘Paper Trail’ Challenge for the Mainstream Media
08/31/09: Drowning in Amorality
08/26/09: The Republican Recovery Program
© 2010, Arnold Ahlert
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