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February 10, 2012
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
February 9, 2012
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
February 8, 2012
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
February 6, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
February 3, 2012
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
February 1, 2012
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
January 31, 2012
January 30, 2012
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
January 27, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
January 26, 2012
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
January 19, 2012
January 18, 2012
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
January 13, 2012
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
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Jewish World Review
January 14, 2008
/ 7 Shevat 5768
The least worst candidate
By
Jack Kelly
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Democrats will nominate for president the candidate they like the best. Republicans grumpily will settle upon the one they dislike the least. That's why I think journalists who wrote Mitt Romney's political obituary after the New Hampshire primary may be as wildly premature as they were when they wrote Hillary Clinton's before it.
The conventional wisdom is that if he doesn't win Tuesday in Michigan, where Dad was governor, then Mitt Romney is dead politically. Mitt seems to think so, because he's cut back on advertising for the South Carolina primary a week later. But Mr. Romney could be resurrected, as John McCain has been.
Gov. Romney hasn't caught on with most Republicans because they suspect his recent conversion to social conservatism is more a matter of convenience than conviction, and because some evangelicals are concerned about his Mormon faith.
But if Mr. Romney loses in Michigan, he'll lose either to Mr. McCain or to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The concerns conservative Republicans have about those two are greater than the qualms they have about Mr. Romney.
If Mr. McCain wins in Michigan, he'll be dubbed the front runner. But that will be meaningless if he loses the next week in South Carolina, where Mr. Huckabee has been leading in most polls.
Journalists put too much emphasis on momentum, which has been absent in the first two contests. The winners in Iowa were losers in New Hampshire. This is mostly because a lot of voters are deciding late, and don't care very much what voters in other states have done.
Journalists who predicted a landslide for Sen. Obama in New Hampshire look to Democratic consultant Jerry Skurnick's "two electorates" theory to explain why they were so wrong. Voters who don't follow politics are much less informed than they used to be, Mr. Skurnick said, so polls can change dramatically when they do inform themselves, which is usually shortly before they cast their ballots.
If Mr. Skurnick is right, only fools will try to predict the outcome in Michigan. This is especially so because Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican primary if they choose, and there is no meaningful Democratic contest. Mr. McCain won in 2000 with crossover votes. A supporter of Sen. Obama, state Rep. Lamar Lemmons of Detroit, is urging Democrats to cross over to vote for Mr. Huckabee.
If Mr. Romney prevails in Michigan, he'll have as much right to claim front runner status as anyone. But even if he loses, he can claim a victory of sorts if exit polls indicate he won a plurality among Republicans. In most future contests, only Republicans will be allowed to vote in the Republican primary.
If Mr. McCain loses in Michigan and South Carolina, the Comeback Kid's comeback will be short-lived. Paradoxically, if Mr. Huckabee wins both contests, it may hasten his doom.
It's fairly easy to estimate the vote total for Mr. Huckabee: Take the number of evangelical Christians who typically vote in Republican primaries. Add 10 percent to it, because Mr. Huckabee attracts to the polls some people who don't normally vote in primaries. Then divide by two, because a lot of evangelicals care as much about economic and national security issues, on which they find Mr. Huckabee less than persuasive, as they do about social issues. The 46 percent of the vote among evangelicals Mr. Huckabee got in Iowa probably is his high-water mark.
Still, in a crowded field this solid base would be enough to keep Mr. Huckabee at or near the top. But it won't be enough once the field narrows, and Republicans leery of Mr. Huckabee will rally around the last man standing to oppose him.
Who could be Rudy Giuliani. If Michigan and South Carolina split, or both are won by Mr. Huckabee, the Florida primary Jan. 29 will be critical, and the former New York mayor is still leading in polls there.
Out of sight, out of mind might end up being a good early strategy for Mr. Giuliani. Once conservatives are reminded of what they don't like about Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee, Rudy could look better to them.
The Democratic contest will be settled Feb. 5, because their race has effectively narrowed to two candidates. But if more than two GOP candidates are viable after Florida, the mega-primary likely will produce mixed results, because no candidate has enough money to compete in all the primaries that day, so each will cherry pick. This means that for the first time since 1976, the GOP candidate could be chosen at the national convention.
In a brokered convention, the candidate who's disliked least has the best chance. I'm not sure who that is.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a
deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan
administration. Comment by clicking here.
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