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Jewish World Review Jan. 20, 2006 / 20 Teves, 5766 Predictions on how your life will change in 2006 By Marty Nemko
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
It's oft said that he who lives by the crystal ball eats broken glass but my annual predictions in previous years have been reasonably on-target. I must admit that's partly because my predictions are rarely radical — they're usually predictions of extant trends that I believe will accelerate. I've found that rarely do things radically change from one year to the next.
The moderate nature of my predictions come also from my nature — Constitutionally, I'm somewhere between an early adopter and the average resident of Peoria. That puts me in a good position to predict things that will affect the mainstream.
The accuracy of my past predictions may also be the result of the procedure I use in developing them. During the first week of January, I create a list of predictions based purely on my synthesis of what I've read, heard, seen, and experienced. Then, during the second week of January, by which time, most prognosticators have rendered their annual forecasts, I read dozens of sets of predictions from a wide range of sources and, as a result, modify my own. What you see here is the result.
TECHNOLOGY
Implications for You: If you're a manager who traditionally has had people fly and drive in for meetings or trainings, consider trying out a state-of-the-art virtual meeting service such as WebEx. (www.webex.com.).
Nuclear will boom. The nuclear (George, that's "nuclear," not "nucular,") threat from Iran or North Korea will burgeon, forcing an at-least symbolic increase in U.S. nuclear weaponry. On the peaceful front, the U.S. will move closer to building its nuclear plants in decades because of American desire for energy independence from Persian Gulf nations and anti-American Venezuela, plus reassurance from the techies that new-generation nuclear plants are safe.
Implications for You: Jobs in the nuclear industry should be plentiful, as will jobs in the oil and gas industries.
Search will expand. Google enjoys a reputation as a premier employer involved in creating important (and cool) projects. So, I'm not surprised to be hearing, again and again, that some of the world's most capable people are applying for jobs at Google — for most openings, it receives hundreds of strong applications. Ultimately, the best company is the one with the best people, so I believe Google will continue to be the leader in search, staving off the upcoming challenge from Microsoft and Yahoo!. Extending that leadership, I predict that in 2006, book publishers — with author permission — will decide to allow Google to index all its books. As a result, Google users will be able to read book excerpts up to a page or two in length for free, with additional amounts requiring a fee to be split among bookseller (Google), author, and publisher, just as in traditional book sales.
Implications for You: Consider working for Google. Google most often hires software developers, but like other companies, also employs accountants, HR people, marketers, etc. Another implication of the boom in search is that the demand will increase for information brokers. Those are self-employed people who are masters at using search engines and other resources to unearth needed information for clients.
Toyota hybrids rock; U.S. cars roll. Hybrid cars will grow in popularity as gas prices remain high and environmentalism-as-religion grows, but in 2006 and 2007, none will be as popular as the Toyota Prius because of its extraordinary gas mileage in a futuristic looking, surprisingly spacious and powerful, and rock-solid reliable car. By 2010, the inexpensive and sometimes downright sexy Chinese cars yet will become reliable enough to generate significant sales in the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. carmakers such as GM, which is losing $25 million per day, will have an ever tougher time competing as they continue to sign union contracts that give its average blue-collar worker $27 an hour plus thousands of dollars per worker in health insurance ($5 billion in total) and a pension most people can only wish for (GM has $86 billion in its pension fund), while granting workers security of employment despite U.S. cars' high defect rate. I predict that as the U.S. airlines that recently declared bankruptcy, GM and/or Ford will declare bankruptcy in late 2006.
Implications for You: Work for Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, or a Chinese car manufacturer. Buy stock in Toyota; sell stock in GM and Ford.
Commercials come to the Net. With ever more of us using broadband-connected computers, more Web sites will force us to watch commercials before being able to view our desired content. That, of course, is particularly likely to occur on sites with in-demand content, for example, CNN or the Wall Street Journal.
Implications for You: Get in on the ground floor of this trend by: 1. Learning what makes an effective Webmercial. One way to start is simply to watch some and ask yourself, "What about this Webmercial makes me want to or not want to watch it? What, if anything, about it would motivate me to buy from that advertiser?" 2. Deciding whether you'd rather: a. work for an ad agency that could or already develops Webmercials. b. For your current or future employer, work with an ad agency to create Webmercials. c. Be an ad salesperson specializing in Webmercials.
Apple will start rotting. Its profits are too dependent on the IPod. Competitors will likely bite into Apple's dominance of the MP3 market. In addition, IPod sales will decline because IPods have now been around for more than four years — hipness declines with age. Cool-hungry teens and 20-somethings will have moved onto the next fad. Apple will be additionally hurt by Microsoft's new operating system, Vista, which will cut Mac sales.
Implications for You: I predict Apple's stock price will decline. It's still in an uptrend, gaga over IPod sales and hype, so sell when it drops more than 10 percent. Also, work somewhere else, for example, the reinvigorated HP.
EMPLOYMENT
Implications for You: Try to convert your temp job to a long-term one (few jobs, anymore, can truly be called permanent) by letting your boss know that you appreciate working with him or her and the company, building relationships with higher-ups, and developing and/or touting skills the employer will always need, for example, business development, sales, or project management. And at the risk of sounding like your mother, come in a little early and stay a little late.
Telecommuting will rise. As traffic from the suburbs to downtown increases and more jobs can be done from home, ever more employers will allow workers to telecommute, at least for part of the week. Indeed, that was one of salary.com's top compensation trends for 2006. And why not? If an employee works at home, that's one less desk of real estate the employer needs to provide. And today, with so much work done on computer, it's easy for employers to keep track of many home-based employees' productivity. A final reason telecommuting will grow in popularity is that many employees enjoy being home part of the week, for example, to be with their kids.
Implications for You: Pitch telecommuting to your boss but think twice about requesting it full-time. Often, if you're out of sight, you're out of mind when it comes time for the boss to assign plum projects. And, from home, it's harder to build the relationships with higher-ups that are key to getting promoted. One more tip: When you and your baby are playing patty cake, turn off the web cam.
THE ECONOMY
Implications for You: If you're a top performer — smart, motivated, tech-savvy yet with good communication skills — you probably can always count on a good job in the U.S. Otherwise, and especially if your work could be offshored, consider switching to an offshore-resistant field. Some of my favorites: audiologist, librarian, speech therapist, medical equipment technician, physician assistant/nurse practitioner, electrician, and — if you think that if you can't beat 'em you better join 'em — cross-cultural trainer, people who teach offshore employees how to work successfully for American employers.
Little will be done to stem illegal immigration. Why? The Right is too eager to provide cheap labor for Corporate America and the Left is scared of alienating minorities, a key part of its base.
Implications for You: Work for a company or start a business that serves illegal immigrants. For example, in areas of the U.S. near the Mexican border, find work in the non-profit and government sectors that would heavily serve illegal immigrants: public schools, hospitals, and government agencies.
China's economy will grow even faster than expected. China has the ingredients for fast growth: quickly increasing business savvy, an enormous, motivated, intelligent, technologically savvy, low-cost workforce, and inability or unwillingness to enforce patents issued in other countries. The latter is critical to their ability to copy American and other products and sell them for a fraction of what U.S. companies must charge. So, it's no surprise that China's trade surplus with the rest of the world tripled in 2005, to a record $102 billion. I predict China's meteoric rise will continue, much of it at the U.S. economy's expense.
Implications for You: Consider learning Chinese and working for a U.S. company involved in joint ventures with China. Or propose to your employer or a prospective one that you would like to create such joint ventures.
E-Commerce will grow faster than ever. I'm now starting to see even tech-resistant, late adopters doing much of their shopping on the Net. I predict the contraction of bricks-and-mortar stores, especially those selling technology products and those requiring extensive floor space. That has already started to happen: For example, Good Guys, a 30-year-old electronics chain, is closing all its 46 stores. Moving forward, I predict, for example, that the number of auto dealers and Sears stores (all those floor-space consuming washing machines and lawn tractors) will decline. Conversely, I predict that the stock of Amazon.com will rise.
Implications for You: Seek employment with e-commerce leaders such as amazon.com, and with the e-commerce divisions of leading retailers, especially Wal-Mart. Buy stock in amazon.com, sell Sears.
THE ECONOMY POLITICS
Implications for You: Government job openings, already extensive, will increase further. The job market in DC, Northern Virginia, blue, and purple (a mix of red and blue) state capitals will be strong, especially for government and government contractors. The defense industry, except for anti-terrorism initiatives, will suffer declines.
Terrorism will increase. Likely, there will be a significant terrorist attack on U.S. soil. I must admit that I predicted that would occur in 2005 and fortunately, I was wrong. But ever growing Muslim hatred of the U.S. combined with terrorists' past successes (for example, affecting the outcome of Spain's presidential election) and the ever greater vulnerability of the Internet, increases further the probability of a successful terrorist attack occurring on the U.S.
Implications for You: I predict that jobs in the security industry, especially for prestigious firms such as Kroll will increase, and will, pardon the expression, explode following a successful terrorist attack on U.S. soil. We tend to overreact to disasters. For example, after 9/11, airplane security was massively increased while cargo ship, train, water supply and Internet security received far less attention. Following Hurricane Katrina, we're focusing on rebuilding levees. So, immediately following a terrorist attack on the U.S., consider seeking employment in firms preventing the type of terrorist attack that was used.
HEALTH CARE
Implications for You: I believe that a graduate program in health care management with a public health emphasis will be valuable in both the near and long term.
A breakthrough in genetic testing will occur. The continuing increase in computing power combined with increased understanding of the human genome makes it likely that a breakthrough in genetic testing will occur in 2006. Perhaps it will be a blood test to help prospective parents predict the likelihood their child would suffer from severe depression, a DNA sample that would determine an adult's susceptibility to a cancer that his father had, or a better test to help in-vitro fertilization doctors identify healthy eggs and sperm to use in helping infertile couples get pregnant.
Implications for You: Consider careers in the biotech industry. Fortune magazine, on January 11, rated biotech company, Genentech, the nation's best place to work. Even if you're a non-scientist, all biotech companies employee people in non-science areas, for example, marketing, accounting, information technology, human resources, etc. True, even for non-science jobs, biotech companies often require conversance with key biotech concepts and jargon, but you may be able to acquire that knowledge just by taking a course or two offered by a community college or a university's extension program.
MEDIA
Implications for You: If you want a career in the media, the Internet is its present and its future. Learn to write in a style that works on the Net, create video content inexpensively for the Web, and/or.learn the art of marketing Internet content.
THE CULTURE WARS
Implications for You: Men should be alert to the possibility that, in some workplaces, New Girls' Networks are as biased against men as the Ol' Boys' Network was against women. Try to get jobs and projects in which the people in power are mixed-gender or male-majority.
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400+ of Dr. Nemko's published writings are on www.martynemko.com. Comment by clicking here. © 2006, Dr. Marty Nemko |
Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||||
