JWR / Middle East Geopolitics


Jason Maoz: The Day Israel Saved The World


Amos Perlmutter: Saddam's Predictable Defiance


A classic editorial: The West's Unfinished Business


Jon B. Alterman: The Sunset of Arab Leadership


Douglas M. Bloomfield: Time for Israel to Leave Lebanon?


Reader Response

Small World
January 26, 1998 / 28 Tevet, 5758

A new alliance brightens the Middle Eastern outlook

By Amos Perlmutter

The Islamic fundamentalist revolution in the Middle East is finally being confronted with a most serious political and military challenge in the form of a Turkish-Israeli-American strategic alliance that held successful joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean on Jan. 7.

The Islamic fundamentalist movement that challenged Arab nationalist ideology -- and in fact overtook its primacy among the Egyptian and other Arab masses -- is now confronting a formidable coalition. The age of Nasserism, the height of pan-Arabist nationalist ideology that has been surpassed by the age of ayatollahs, mullahs and religious fundamentalists from Iran to Morocco, is now on the defensive.

The Arab nationalists, whose ideology has decayed, have not established any form of political and military alliance against the fundamentalists. Instead, it took three democratic and secular republics -- Turkey, Israel and the United States -- to raise the ante and warn the fundamentalists and their terrorist allies that their offensive is now being checked.

Obviously, the task will not be easy. Corrupt dictatorial and authoritarian Arab regimes created the conditions for the rise of mass discontent and anger and a favorable arena for fundamentalist political action.

It is true that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism is linked to the failure of Arab nationalist regimes to successfully establish modern states and societies. The secular coalition represents the first serious challenge to the fundamentalists. If the latter, through electoral or violent means, overthrow regimes in Egypt, Morocco or Jordan, the Israel-Turkish-American alliance supported by Jordan will meet this challenge.

This alliance, contrary to the declarations of Egyptian politicians, military leaders, journalistic pundits and intellectual voyeurs, is not set against the Arab states or against Islam any more than American-Saudi or American-Egyptian military maneuvers represent a challenge to the State of Israel. The alliance must be understood in the context of the fundamentalist challenge and terrorism. It represents an effort on the part of a powerful hegemonic state, the United States, and the states with the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, Israel and Turkey, to guarantee the stability and persistence of secularism in Turkey, the great dream and achievement of its secular founding father, Kemal Ataturk.

As reported in a recent New York Times article, the Israeli-Turkish-American naval exercises have met condemnations, and "not surprisingly, the loudest came from Syria." It is true that the dictatorial regime of Syria, a secular one, is strategically threatened by an Israeli-Turkish alliance, and for good reasons. Syria is responsible for sustaining and supporting Lebanon's Hezbollah, which continues to terrorize Israel. Syria and Turkey also have serious disputes over water resources.

Isolating Syrian President Hafez Assad may prove wise. The presence of the commander of the Jordanian navy as an observer at the naval exercises demonstrates that Jordan, the state most vulnerable to Islamic and Palestinian revolutionaries, is distancing itself from Assad as well.

The Israeli-Turkish-American naval exercises are partially redeeming the Clinton administration from its failure to seriously challenge Saddam Hussein. In this respect, the exercises are of great strategic importance. They demonstrate to the Arabs of the Gulf the American determination to stay in the area and to the Turkish and Israeli secular and democratic regimes that the United States stands firm behind them. From the Turkish point of view, this is also an indirect American challenge to the European Union, which shamelessly refused to offer Turkey a membership in the EU, while membership was offered to undemocratic Bulgaria and Romania, and to other as yet untested new regimes in Eastern Europe. Turkey has been a most loyal American and NATO ally, and is unfortunately being short-changed. The EU should reverse its tactically foolish policy.

It is a matter of fact and history that Arab alliance since 1945 have ignominiously failed. See the case of the Arab League's failure to unite in its aim to destroy Israel; the collapse of the Nasserite United Arab Republic of the late '50s and early '60s; and the failure of the Gulf War Arab coalition to meet the most recent Iraqi challenge. History has proven the unreliability of Arab alliances, even when it comes to their most precious and holy Palestinian cause, Arab unity, and national cooperation.

In contradistinction, the carefully and long-prepared Israel-Turkish alliance is maturing successfully, mainly because the United States stands behind it. King Hussein of Jordan, a wise statesman, has joined the alliance as an observer, thus guaranteeing the defense of his country against present and future Syrian and Iraqi aggression.

It is hoped that the leadership of Egypt will find this alliance to be in its interest. It is secular, composed of friendly states, and above all represents a powerful combination: the United States, Turkey and Israel. It is hoped the Egyptian columnists, propagandists and political and military elites realize this alliance is not designed against Egypt or to deprive Egypt of its significant role as the leading Arab country. On the contrary, the alliance should be welcomed by and hopefully joined by Egypt in the near future. After all, the real enemies of the Mubarak regime and of secular Egypt are the fundamentalists and nobody else.

Certain Egyptian leaders should forgo the paranoid belief that everything Israel does is meant to weaken Egypt, lest they miss an important opportunity to enhance Egyptian stability and security.

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1/1/98: Saddam's predictable defiance


JWR contributor Amos Perlmutter is a professor of political science and sociology at American University and the editor of the Journal of Strategic Studies.

©1998, Amos Perlmutter