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A new alliance brightens the Middle Eastern outlook
By Amos Perlmutter
The Islamic fundamentalist revolution in the Middle East is finally
being confronted with a most serious political and military challenge
in the form of a Turkish-Israeli-American strategic alliance that held
successful joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean on Jan. 7.
The Islamic fundamentalist movement that challenged Arab nationalist
ideology -- and in fact overtook its primacy among the Egyptian and other
Arab masses -- is now confronting a formidable coalition. The age of
Nasserism, the height of pan-Arabist nationalist ideology that has been
surpassed by the age of ayatollahs, mullahs and religious
fundamentalists from Iran to Morocco, is now on the defensive.
The Arab nationalists, whose ideology has decayed, have not established
any form of political and military alliance against the fundamentalists.
Instead, it took three democratic and secular republics -- Turkey, Israel and
the United States -- to raise the ante and warn the fundamentalists and
their terrorist allies that their offensive is now being checked.
Obviously, the task will not be easy. Corrupt dictatorial and
authoritarian Arab regimes created the conditions for the rise of mass
discontent and anger and a favorable arena for fundamentalist political
action.
It is true that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism is linked to the
failure of Arab nationalist regimes to successfully establish modern
states and societies. The secular coalition represents the first serious
challenge to the fundamentalists. If the latter, through
electoral or violent means, overthrow regimes in Egypt, Morocco or
Jordan, the Israel-Turkish-American alliance supported by Jordan will
meet this challenge.
This alliance, contrary to the declarations of Egyptian politicians, military leaders,
journalistic pundits and intellectual voyeurs, is not set against the
Arab states or against Islam any more than American-Saudi or
American-Egyptian military maneuvers represent a challenge to the State
of Israel. The alliance must be understood in the context of the
fundamentalist challenge and terrorism. It represents an
effort on the part of a powerful hegemonic state, the United
States, and the states with the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, Israel and
Turkey, to guarantee the stability and persistence of secularism in
Turkey, the great dream and achievement of its secular founding father,
Kemal Ataturk.
As reported in a recent New York Times article, the
Israeli-Turkish-American naval exercises have met condemnations, and "not
surprisingly, the loudest came from Syria." It is true that the
dictatorial regime of Syria, a secular one, is strategically threatened
by an Israeli-Turkish alliance, and for good reasons. Syria is
responsible for sustaining and supporting Lebanon's Hezbollah, which
continues to terrorize Israel. Syria and Turkey also have serious disputes over water resources.
Isolating Syrian President Hafez Assad may prove wise. The presence of the commander of
the Jordanian navy as an observer at the naval exercises demonstrates that Jordan, the state most
vulnerable to Islamic and Palestinian revolutionaries, is distancing
itself from Assad as well.
The Israeli-Turkish-American naval exercises are partially redeeming the
Clinton administration from its failure to seriously challenge Saddam
Hussein. In this respect, the exercises are of great strategic
importance. They demonstrate to the Arabs of the Gulf the American
determination to stay in the area and to the Turkish and Israeli secular
and democratic regimes that the United States stands firm behind them.
From the Turkish point of view, this is also an indirect American
challenge to the European Union, which shamelessly refused to offer
Turkey a membership in the EU, while membership was offered to
undemocratic Bulgaria and Romania, and to other as yet untested new
regimes in Eastern Europe. Turkey has been a most loyal American and
NATO ally, and is unfortunately being short-changed. The EU should
reverse its tactically foolish policy.
It is a matter of fact and history that Arab alliance since 1945 have
ignominiously failed. See the case of the Arab League's failure to unite
in its aim to destroy Israel; the collapse of the Nasserite United Arab
Republic of the late '50s and early '60s; and the failure of the Gulf
War Arab coalition to meet the most recent Iraqi challenge. History has
proven the unreliability of Arab alliances, even when it comes to their
most precious and holy Palestinian cause, Arab unity, and national
cooperation.
In contradistinction, the carefully and long-prepared Israel-Turkish
alliance is maturing successfully, mainly because the United States
stands behind it. King Hussein of Jordan, a wise statesman, has joined
the alliance as an observer, thus guaranteeing the defense of his
country against present and future Syrian and Iraqi aggression.
It is hoped that the leadership of Egypt will find this
alliance to be in its interest. It is secular, composed of friendly states, and above all represents a powerful combination:
the United States, Turkey and Israel. It is hoped the Egyptian
columnists, propagandists and political and military elites realize this
alliance is not designed against Egypt or to deprive Egypt of its
significant role as the leading Arab country. On the contrary, the
alliance should be welcomed by and hopefully joined by Egypt in the near
future. After all, the real enemies of the Mubarak regime and of secular
Egypt are the fundamentalists and nobody else.
Certain Egyptian leaders should forgo the paranoid belief that everything
Israel does is meant to weaken Egypt, lest they miss an important opportunity to enhance Egyptian stability and security.
1/1/98: Saddam's predictable defiance
JWR contributor Amos Perlmutter is a professor of political science and sociology at American University and the editor of the Journal of Strategic Studies.
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